Brighter forecast
Now more of us can count on more time dodging the dementia bullet
You’ve turned 65 and exited middle age. What are the chances you’ll develop cognitive impairment or dementia in the years ahead? New research about “cognitive life expectancy” — how long older adults live with good versus declining brain health — shows that after age 65 men and women spend more than a dozen years in good cognitive health, on average. And, over the past decade, that time span has been expanding.
By contrast, cognitive challenges arise in a more compressed time frame in later life, with mild cognitive impairment (problems with memory, decision-making or thinking skills) lasting about four years, on average, and dementia (Alzheimer’s disease or other related conditions) occurring over 1½ to two years.
Even when these conditions surface, many seniors retain an overall sense of well-being, according to new research presented last month at the Population Association of America’s annual meeting.
“The majority of cognitively impaired years are happy ones, not unhappy ones,” said Anthony Bardo, a co-author of that study and assistant professor of sociology at the University of Kentucky-Lexington.
Most seniors healthy
Of Americans 65 and older, about 20 percent to 25 percent have mild cognitive impairment while about 10 percent have dementia, according to Dr. Kenneth Langa, an expert in the demography of aging and a professor of medicine at the University of Michigan. Risks rise with advanced age, and the portion of the population affected is significantly higher for people over 85.
Langa’s research shows that the prevalence of dementia has fallen in the U.S. — a trend observed in developed countries across the globe. A new study from researchers at the Rand Corp. and the National Bureau of Economic Research finds that 10.5 percent of U.S. adults age 65 and older had dementia in 2012, compared with 12 percent in 2000.
Because the population of older adults is expanding, the number of people affected by dementia is increasing nonetheless: an estimated 4.5 million in 2012, compared with 4.1 million in 2000.
More years of education, which is associated with better physical and brain health, appears to be contributing to this phenomenon.
This research looks at the older population as a whole and can’t predict what will happen to any given individual. Still, it’s helpful in getting a general sense of what people can expect.
More good years
With longer lives and lower rates of dementia, most seniors are enjoying more years of life with good cognition — a welcome trend.
Two years ago, Eileen Crimmins, AARP chair of gerontology at the University of Southern California’s Leonard Davis School of Gerontology, documented this shift in research using data about adults 65 and older from the Health and Retirement Study.
In 2000, she found, a 65-year-old woman could expect to live 12.5 years with good cognition, four years with mild cognitive impairment and 2.6 years with dementia, on average. A decade later, in 2010, the period in good cognition had expanded to 14.1 years, with 3.9 years spent with mild cognitive impairment and 2.3 years spent with dementia.
For men, the 2010 figures are different: 12.5 years with good cognition after age 65 (compared with 10.7 in 2000); 3.7 years with mild cognitive impairment (the same as in 2000); and 1.4 years with dementia (compared with 1.8 years in 2010).
Improvements in education and nutrition, better control of hypertension and cholesterol, cognitively demanding jobs in middle age, and social engagement in later life may all contribute to this expanded period of good brain health, the study noted.
Quality of life
Bardo’s research adds another dimension to this literature by addressing two questions: Do older adults with cognitive impairment feel they have a good quality of life and, if so, for how long?
His study, which has not yet been published, focuses on happiness as an important indicator of quality of life. The data come from thousands of adults 65 and older who participated in the Health and Retirement Study between 1998 and 2012 and who were asked if they were happy “all/most of the time” or “some/none of the time” during the past week.
These answers were combined with information about cognitive impairment derived from tests that examined seniors’ ability to recall words and to count backward, among other tasks.
Findings suggest that cognitive impairment is not a deterrent to happiness. Of the period that seniors spent cognitively impaired, about 5.5 years on average, they reported being happy for 4.8 years — about 85 percent of the time. Of the 12.5 years that older adults spent in good cognitive health, they reported being happy nearly 90 percent of the time.
The bottom line: “Cognitive impairment doesn’t equate with unhappiness,” Bardo said. Still, he cautioned that his study didn’t look at how happiness correlates with the extent of impairment. Certainly, people with moderate to severe dementia experience serious difficulties in their lives, as do their caregivers, he noted.
THE MAJORITY OF COGNITIVELY IMPAIRED YEARS ARE HAPPY ONES, NOT UNHAPPY ONES. ANTHONY BARDO, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF SOCIOLOGY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY LEXINGTON