2010s a ‘lost decade’ for the state’s population

It may not be over yet, but the 2010s are shaping up to be New Mexico’s “lost decade.”

Much has been made of the slow growth during this decade in Albuquerque, Santa Fe and the entire state. Consider just how slow the growth has been with some historical census data.

Using decennial census data and the latest annual estimates of the census bureau’s Population Estimates Program, the following comparisons can be made:

Albuquerque is on pace to have the lowest population growth this decade — +18,133 at the current rate — since the city grew by just 8,929 residents in the 1930s. And, back then, Albuquerque was a city of only 26,570 residents. The city saw its largest population increase in the 1950s — +104,374 — when it more than doubled in population from 96,815 in 1950 to 201,189 in 1960. This is more than five times the current growth in a city that contained only 17 percent of the current population of 558,545 as of July 1, 2017.

Santa Fe is on pace to have the lowest population growth — +3,923 at the current rate — since the 1920s when the City Different grew by virtually the same number — +3,940, 90 years ago. But, again, back then Santa Fe was a small town of 11,136 versus a city of 83,776 in 2017. Those comparing Santa Fe’s rate need to use the adjusted 2010 population figure in the Population Estimates Program, which accounts for a large annexation of existing population in 2014.

New Mexico is on pace to absorb its lowest population increase — +41,273 at the current rate — since the state grew by just 33,049 from 1910-1920, the same decade New Mexico became a state. Again, New Mexico had a population of just 327,301 in 1910 compared to a population estimate of 2,088,070 in 2017. Discussing growth rates as a percentage is a different topic.

The other day a friend asked me how we were going to deal with all this growth we’re experiencing, to which I replied, “what growth?” When I summarized how slow the population growth was in Albuquerque and throughout most of New Mexico, my friend said, “Oh! that’s good news!” to which I replied, “Well, that depends on who you’re talking to.”

Slow growth is either a godsend or a serious problem. For those who are securely employed or those who are retired, then slow growth is just fine. But, for folks in the construction trades, retail and wholesale businesses, and our younger adult population, slow growth can mean difficulty keeping a business afloat, as well as fewer job opportunities and career ladders. We can all agree on the benefits of good schools, reducing crime, saving water, developing and maintaining great city parks and keeping the roads in good shape. We don’t all agree on how fast the population should grow.

Unlike our elected officials, I don’t believe state and local public policy has much of an effect on our growth. There are bigger market forces at work that determine these things including local, regional and national demographics.

I do have one suggestion though: The best way to keep a summer get-together festive and agreeable is to stay away from two topics; our president and Albuquerque’s lack of growth.