Pitching to a new standard
Houston uses analytics to make newcomers even better
Relief pitcher Ryan Pressly was pondering the question before him, trying to figure out either how to explain something he may not fully understand yet or how much of the answer he was permitted to reveal, when at the locker next door, fellow reliever Collin McHugh helpfully stage-whispered the Houston Astros’ preferred answer: “Just say it’s the magic dust.”
The question, of course, was: How do the Astros get remarkable, unmistakable improvement out of seemingly every pitcher they acquire? (Helpful hint: it isn’t the magic dust.) And Pressly, a 29-year-old right-hander still new to the organization, is that question’s latest flesh-and-blood incarnation.
Pressly was a perfectly serviceable, occasionally excellent relief pitcher over parts of six seasons with the Minnesota Twins, with a 3.75 career ERA, one career save, a 1.303 WHIP and a strikeout ratio that had climbed steadily over those years until, by July 2018, it was among the highest in the league. It was that strikeout ratio, and the spectacular curveball behind it, that attracted the Astros, who sent two prospects to Minnesota in a trade for him on July 27.
“If Ryan Pressly had shown up exactly the way he was in Minnesota, we would have been perfectly satisfied. His stuff was electric,” Astros General Manager Jeff Luhnow said Sunday. “The fact he came in and was willing to work with our coaches and found ways to get even more out of his stuff is great.”
Since coming to the Astros, Pressly has basically been the reincarnation of Mariano Rivera. In 26 appearances for them, he posted a 0.77 ERA and a 0.600 WHIP, locking down the role of top setup man to closer Roberto Osuna. In three appearances this postseason, including the seventh inning of Game 1 of the American League Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox, he has thrown 3⅓ scoreless, hitless innings, allowing just and one walk and striking out five.
The American League Championship Series is tied at a game apiece and continues today at Houston’s Minute Maid Park. Through five games this postseason, the Astros’ staff has posted a 2.66 ERA and limited opposing batters to a .162 average.
“Honestly,” Pressly said, “it’s the preparation of the [Astros’] analytics department. They tell us what works and what’s not going to work — the percentages, how to set up your mix of pitches, how to attack hitters.”
That may only be part of it, and the Astros will only go so far in explaining the rest, but as a starting point, that will suffice. Pressly’s curveball happens to be the kind of weapon of which an analytics-minded team such as the Astros dreams. According to Statcast, its average spin rate of 3,225 rpm ranked second in baseball this season.
But with the Twins, Pressly was using it relatively sparingly, throwing it just 24.5 percent of all his pitches and leaning heavily on his fastball (48.5 percent). With the Astros, Pressly has dialed up his curve percentage to 37.4 and reduced his fastball usage to 34.6. He has made other changes, as well, since coming to Houston — throwing more sliders in two-strike counts, for example, and elevating his fastball more often — but the drastic change in his overall repertoire is what stands out.
“When I came over here, they were like, ‘Look, your curveball is your best pitch,” Pressly said. “Everyone tells you your best pitch should be your fastball. But with the amount of spin you have on the ball, you need to throw that more, and it will set up your fastball even more.’”
Pressly’s experience these past few months is a microcosm of what the Astros have been doing these past few years, on their way to three playoff appearances since 2015 and a World Series title in 2017. You can go down the line. Nearly every significant pitcher the Astros have acquired in that span has gotten demonstrably and significantly better. That includes Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Osuna, and Charlie Morton.
“It’s not something where they put you in a chamber, and they push a button and you come out a new pitcher,” Morton said. “You’re the pitcher you are, with the tools you have, and they give you suggestions on how to utilize your stuff a little bit better . . . For people to say, ‘Oh they must be doing something illegal or special — because why aren’t [other teams] doing it?’ Well, they haven’t caught up yet.”