Elections highlight challenges in 2020
Neither party has a clear advantage as attention turns to the White House race
A few decades ago, Republicans enjoyed a so-called lock on the electoral college. Later it was Democrats and a substantial blue wall of states that seemed to give them the edge in presidential races. Tuesday’s midterm results underscored that, for now, those days are gone. Neither party can claim a clear advantage in the arithmetic that will decide who will win the White House in 2020.
Voters delivered divided government to Washington on Tuesday, ousting the Republican majority in the House while reinforcing the GOP majority in the Senate. Those results, state by state and district by district, framed the geographic and demographic challenges for both President Donald Trump and whoever becomes the Democratic presidential nominee two years from now.
Tuesday’s results highlighted the fact that the focal point of the struggle for electoral superiority over the next two years and probably beyond will be in the suburbs. Democrats dominate the big urban centers and Trump, heading a reconstituted Republican Party, has tightened the GOP’s grip on rural America. That leaves the one place of true competition, the suburban voters, many of whom have long favored Republicans but who staged a revolt against the president Tuesday by voting for Democratic candidates.
The road to the White House ultimately depends on a handful of states. Two years ago, Trump secured his victory by winning two big prizes, Ohio easily and Florida narrowly, and then carrying Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by the thinnest or margins - less that one percentage point in each state.
On Tuesday, voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania backed Democratic candidates for both governor and the Senate; in Wisconsin and Michigan, they reversed eight years of GOP rule in the governor’s mansion. What that means for 2020 is not entirely clear, given that two of the senators and one of the governors elected were incumbents.
At the least, the Democratic victories provided a morale boost, and in demonstrating the coalition needed to win, may represent at least a symbolic roadblock to the president as he maps his 2020 strategy. But party strategists acknowledged Wednesday that much work remains to be done in those Midwest battlegrounds.
Tuesday’s results in Ohio and Florida serve as a reminder to Democrats of challenges the party’s nominee could face in two states that have provided some of the most hard-fought presidential contests of the past two decades.
In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown won his reelection bid, offering Democrats one model for winning a competitive state with a progressive record and message.