LSU has advantage over OU; Clemson begins title defense
The four College Football Playoff teams rank in the top five nationally in points per game and yards per game.
For defenses to determine who wins this championship, there might be a turnover here, a sack there and a couple of clutch red-zone stops.
There are several key matchups that could decide Saturday’s semifinals:
No. 1 LSU (13-0) vs. No. 4 Oklahoma (12-1), Peach Bowl in Atlanta, 2 p.m.
Line: LSU by 13.5. WHEN LSU HAS THE BALL:
Coaches like to talk about being aggressive offensively. That’s how Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow and the Tigers play.
The Tigers often have five receivers on the field, relying on their front five to pass protect and Burrow’s decisionmaking and mobility to avoid pressure. LSU’s top three wide receivers (All-American Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Terrace Marshall Jr.) each have at least 10 touchdown catches.
Versatile running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (50 catches and 1,290 yards rushing) is used frequently in the passing game as more than just an outlet for Burrow.
Edwards-Helaire is nursing a hamstring injury and might not play. His versatility would be missed, though probably not as much as Oklahoma will miss defensive end Ronnie Perkins.
Perkins, who leads the Sooners in sacks with six, is reportedly suspended for the playoff. WHEN OKLAHOMA HAS THE BALL:
If fans expect a typical fast-paced Big 12 offense, the Sooners might surprise them.
Oklahoma’s offenses under coach Lincoln Riley have always been balanced and among the best in the country on the ground. With Heisman runner-up Jalen Hurts, the quarterback is now the Sooners’ primary ball carrier. The powerful senior ran for 1,255 yards behind a huge offensive line. Kennedy Brooks is the top tailback. Injuries and suspensions have depleted the depth behind him. Expect a lot of Hurts and Brooks, setting up play-action passes to AllAmerica receiver CeeDee Lamb.
The Sooners don’t have much chance of holding down LSU’s offense without getting a bunch of turnovers. Slowing down the game might be OU’s best bet.
But LSU’s defense is healthier than it’s
been all season and their big bodies up front (Glen Logan, Tyler Shelvin and Rashard Lawrence all weigh over 300 pounds) are hard to move.
RUSSO’S PICK: LSU 45-24. No. 2 Ohio State (13-0) vs. No. 3 Clemson (13-0), Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, 6 p.m.
Line: Clemson by 2.
WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE BALL: QB Justin Fields said Tuesday his left knee is only 80 to 85% heading into Saturday’s College Football Playoff semifinal in Glendale. He plans to wear a small brace during the game and brought a larger one in case anything happens.
Fields aggravated a previous injury against Penn State on Nov. 23 and again the following week against Michigan when a teammate rolled into his knee. He struggled in the first half of the Big Ten championship game against Wisconsin before throwing two touchdown passes as the Buckeyes rallied for a 34-21 victory.
Fields (40 touchdown passes and one
interception) was a Heisman finalist, but J.K. Dobbins might be the Buckeyes’ offensive MVP.
“He is the catalyst,” Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said of Dobbins.
Dobbins is tough inside and out and ran for 1,829 and 20 touchdowns. He is also effective as a receiver with 17 catches for 200 yards and two scores.
WHEN CLEMSON HAS THE BALL: The Tigers are making their fifth straight playoff appearance and have won two national titles in the last three years.
Still, this is the best Clemson offense the Tigers have had entering the playoff. The Tigers have gone from solid to elite along the line, led by second-team All-America guard John Simpson and sophomore left tackle Jackson Carman.
“If you ever try to lighten the box now you’re dealing with a great offensive line and Travis Etienne” (1,500 yards rushing and 8.24 per carry), Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson said.
That line, especially Carman, will be tested by college football’s best pass rusher. Heisman finalist Chase Young had 16.5 sacks in 11 games. As teams began scheming to slow Young, Ohio State moved him around the formation, particularly on third down.
Extra attention on Young means defensive linemen Davon Hamilton and Jashon Cornell have to be handled one-on-one. The Buckeyes challenge will be to get enough pressure to fluster Trevor Lawrence.
“I don’t know that they have another dynamic rush guy,” Fickell said. “They’ve got some really, really good ones.”
Lawrence led Clemson to a national title last year as a freshman. He has pinpoint accuracy and big targets in Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross, both 6-4. The Buckeyes are used to cornerbacks Jeff Okudah, an All-American, and Damon Arnette locking down outside receivers. That might be too much to expect against Clemson, which has confidence in Lawrence to work the middle of the field. RUSSO’S PICK: CLEMSON 42-35.