Much to work out; how much time is left?
Baseball owners, players have these key issues
CHICAGO — The fate of the 2020 baseball season could be decided by the end of next week, which most have pointed to as a soft deadline for an agreement between MLB and the players union.
Though negotiations have been contentious — to say the least — and neither side appears willing to budge on a fair way to compensate players during a pandemic-shortened season without fans, hope springs eternal that they can reach a compromise and play ball.
Here are some things we’ve learned
from discussions with baseball people on both sides of the issue.
1. What is the drop-dead date for a decision to start the season? There is none. But in order to have an 82-game season that begins by the first week of July, a spring training needs to begin by June 10. Teams believe most pitchers will need about four weeks to get ready, and position players will need about three. Players believe they should play more than 82 games and are willing to stretch the season beyond September and start the postseason later if need be. In that case, they could wait until later in June before agreeing to terms. MLB fears a second wave of the coronavirus could arrive later in the fall and wants to get the postseason finished by the end of October, so it would need to know
sooner. A 60- or 70-game season would be considered insufficient for baseball purists.
2. What’s the holdup? Assuming the sides are close on health and safety protocols, including widespread testing, financial matters likely will be the deciding factor. MLB has proposed a tiered system of salary cuts that penalizes the higher-paid players more than the lesser-paid players. The players contend they agreed to accept prorated salaries in March when a deal was struck to give them a lump sum of $170 million, plus service time, in the event of a canceled season. They currently are holding their ground. The owners contend they will lose money without fans and would thus need deeper pay cuts,
but the union isn’t buying it. “The players said we only want to get paid for the games we play,” one source said. “The owners said: ‘Yes, sir, I’ll take that deal.’ So to suggest we’re going to negotiate from something we already negotiated, we already gave up that consideration.” Max Scherzer, a member of the union’s executive subcommittee, said there is “no reason to engage with MLB in any further reductions.” Case closed?
3. Is there optimism a deal will be reached? It depends on whom you ask. One league source admitted there is a “disconnect” between the sides and said it was “ugly.” Some on the players’ side believe the owners almost would have to play this season because it’s the difference between losing perhaps $100 million or making around $20 million from guaranteed media rights and sponsorship deals. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred contends owners will lose nearly $4 billion combined if games are played in empty stadiums and they have to pay prorated salaries. Las Vegas is betting the season will happen. According to betonline.ag, the odds are 1-5 the season will be played as opposed to 3-1 it will be canceled.
4. What is the biggest fear of teams? That one player or someone in the organization will act irresponsibly and contract the coronavirus by not staying home, then spreading it to other players. Despite the proposed testing protocols, no one can be totally risk-free, and it only takes one positive test to ruin things. 5. What will happen to minor leaguers? Some teams will continue to pay theirs while others are still deciding. There won’t be a minor league season, but the possibility of an expanded Fall League exists to continue the development of some top prospects. Depending on roster sizes, some minor-leaguers will be on teams’ taxi squads, perhaps playing in minor-league ballparks near the home cities to stay ready.
6. Will the media be allowed to cover the games? We’ll see. MLB has not revealed plans on proposed media access. The Baseball Writers Association of America has asked to discuss access issues with MLB, which has delayed its response, according to the president of the BBWAA — who happens to be this reporter. Access is essential to provide fans with information on teams and players, and as long as reporters follow social-distancing guidelines and wear masks, the BBWAA feels the media should be allowed to interview players and managers in safe settings. 7. Will fans be banned from ballparks all season? Some insiders believe about 70% of teams will be allowed to have fans in their stadiums by mid-July or early August because of to more lax restrictions from their local governments. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, for instance, approved an order Thursday allowing outdoor sports facilities to operate at 25% capacity. Less permissive states, such as Illinois, New York and California, might be among the last to allow fans. Teams must receive approval from government officials to allow fans, and many have begun working on plans with their governors. 8. How many seasons have been canceled? Only one since 1871, and never a full season. The 1994 season was canceled in September after the players went on strike in August. The 1918 season was shortened by World War I, but the World Series was held in early September, with Babe Ruth leading the Red Sox past the Chicago Cubs in six games. In 1904 the New York Giants of the National League refused to play the Boston Pilgrims of the American League in the World Series.
9. If there is no agreement, who will be blamed? That’s in the eye of the beholder. Certainly millionaire players would be blamed by some for refusing to accept pay cuts with millions of Americans unemployed. But most billionaire owners have deep pockets and easily could afford to get through a half-season of potential losses after raking in money for years. The only thing that seems certain is the game will suffer severe damage — and some fans likely won’t ever come back.