Players in their prime to be robbed of full year
60-game MLB schedule could lead to anomalies
On Monday, Major League Baseball owners voted unanimously to proceed with the 2020 MLB season under the terms of their March 26 agreement with the MLB Players Association. Commissioner Rob Manfred announced the season would be 60 games in length with “spring” training starting July 1 and an Opening Day on or around July 24.
The shortened season will lead to many anomalies, including the possibility of a .400 hitter or Triple Crown winner, albeit with an asterisk. It will also rob more than a hundred hitters of a year in their prime.
The window of a hitter’s prime years has been debated for decades, but a consensus has been built by notable baseball analysts. For example, in 1982, Bill James published a study in his “Baseball Abstract” that concluded “the heights of excellence” are produced most frequently by players aged 26 to 30 with their greatest value attained at age 27. Mitchel Lichtman, co-author of “The Book: Playing The Percentages In Baseball,” found in 2009 the peak age to be “around 27-28.” Jim Albert found a similar trend in 2017. My research has found hitters in the majors reach their peak, in terms of wins above replacement, between ages 24 and 27.
In 2020, 134 hitters expected to be on the major league roster as everyday regulars, bench players or members of a platoon will lose a season of their primes. No team will feel the effects more than the Baltimore Orioles, who have the most hitters — nine — between ages 24 and 27 penciled into their lineup. The New York Mets and Seattle Mariners are near the top, with eight hitters each in that age group. The Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers each have just one player set to lose out on a full season during a peak year.
New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso dominated the NL rookie of the year voting last year (29 of possible 30 first-place votes) after batting .260 with a rookie record 53 home runs plus 120 RBIs. He will be 25 on Opening Day yet won’t have a full season to play what could be the second year of his prime.
Other players affected in a similar way include Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Matt Chapman, Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger.
Turner missed 40 games last season for the Washington Nationals and will now have just 60 to help bolster his free agency, set for 2023. The soon-to-be 27-year-old shortstop led the league in stolen bases in 2018 (43) and was the second-fastest position player of 2019 (average sprint speed of 30.4 feet per second), a skill that declines with age.
Lindor, 26, agreed with the Cleveland Indians on a one-year, $17.5 million deal to avoid arbitration in 2020 and is eligible for his last year of arbitration in 2021 before earning an opportunity to explore the free agent market. Cleveland’s two-time Gold Glove switch-hitting shortstop has hit 32 or more home runs in each of the past three seasons and hit .400 (12 for 30) with three home runs, three doubles and 10 RBIs in 10 spring training games before baseball was suspended due to the novel coronavirus pandemic.
Chapman, 27, finished in the top 10 in MVP voting in each of the past two seasons for the Oakland Athletics, setting a career high for isolated power at .257 to rank ninth in the American League last season.
Since entering the league in 2014, only Mike Trout has produced more wins above replacement than Betts, now of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Betts, 27, is one year away from free agency and will miss most of what effectively could be the final season in his prime.
The Dodgers’ Bellinger, the reigning NL MVP and a former rookie of the year, has improved each season in a major league uniform. In 2019 he batted .305 with a 1.035 OPS, leading the league in total bases (351 with 47 home runs) and intentional walks (21). His 7.8 wins above replacement tied for the league lead last year and is among the Top 50 hitter performances since 2006. Per FanGraphs, a conservative estimate of 6.5 wins above replacement (the most in the NL) was established for him if the 2020 season had been played in its entirety.