Resurgent virus dims crisis recovery hopes
Expert fears more transmission when flu season begins
Any remaining hope that the coronavirus that’s pushed the U.S., Europe and much of Asia into historic economic downturns would take a holiday was all but crushed this week. The virus continues to rampage through parts of the U.S. and engulf nations across the developing world, particularly India, Brazil and South Africa. It’s made a comeback in Japan, as well as areas in Europe and China.
At its current pace of about 250,000 or so new cases a day, there could be well more than 50 million infections worldwide by the end of 2020. About 674,000 people have died of COVID-19 globally, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
The time until the release of a safe and effective vaccine will be very challenging, with countries like the U.S. and Brazil potentially leading the way in severity, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. The same type of surge in daily cases that took place in the U.S. around the Memorial Day holiday could be repeated around Labor Day, when schools reopen, he said.
“I think we’ll see a substantial increase in transmission that’s going to spill over into more adults and at-risk people,” he said. “And then that gets us into the beginning of flu season, when transmission is potentially enhanced by all the indoor activity. If you add that all up together, it’s not a pretty picture.”
Some parts of the world that seemed to have the virus under control continue to confront new outbreaks. China has seen infections surge in the northwestern region of Xinjiang. The U.K. has reintroduced restrictions to parts of northern England after a new flurry of cases, only weeks after it started to reopen.
The resurgence of infections across Europe has prompted governments to impose new travel and social restrictions, such as the U.K.’s quarantine for all travelers from Spain, where cases have surged. France, Belgium, Germany and other countries have seen worrying upticks as well.
While jobless benefits are on balance more generous in Europe than the U.S., the economic pain seems likely to deepen in the euro area. Joblessness in the region could hit almost 10% by the end of the year as the economy slumps, according to a Bloomberg survey. In the U.K., unemployment is forecast to reach 8%, more than double its level in the previous year.