NFC’s QB movement a plus for Dallas?
Most teams have not significantly upgraded
DALLAS — The quarterback news this offseason continues to be all good for the Cowboys, and I don’t mean the Dak Prescott signing, although it, rather obviously, qualifies as good news at least for the two years before his cap figure soars above $44 million in 2023.
I mean the game of musical chairs, the quarterback carousel, the continued tossing of the dice as teams desperate for help at the prime position have vied for our attention. And most of the gambles are being taken by teams in the Cowboys’ conference. Last week it was San Francisco trading up to the third spot in the April 29 draft, making it clear that Jimmy Garoppolo’s pass had expired, and then this week Carolina making the trade for the Jets’ Sam Darnold.
Correct me if I’m wrong here (some of you make a regular habit of this via email or Twitter and I can’t possibly thank you enough), but that’s half the conference — eight NFC teams — that have changed quarterbacks from a year ago. In fact, it’s a nice, precise two teams in each of the four divisions making moves in search of a brighter future.
That brings us to the good news for Dallas. I can make the case that only two of these eight teams have actually upgraded the position, and one of those is iffy enough that I’m calling for an asterisk. So let’s go with 1.5 upgrades out of eight at least for the year 2021, which should at least inspire some thought around The Star that perhaps this — the sixth year for Prescott and Zeke Elliott — would be a good time to make a Great Leap Forward in the NFC.
Here is the rundown from the East to West.
WASHINGTON — Ryan Fitzpatrick in for Alex Smith. Not an upgrade.
Fitzpatrick is more likely to stay healthy, but he’s definitely more likely to throw interceptions (career percentage of 3.3 to Smith’s 2.1). He will be entertaining, and Terry McLaurin should have some big days, but there’s a lot of fool’s gold that comes with Fitzmagic.
PHILADELPHIA — Jalen Hurts in for Carson Wentz. Not an upgrade.
In this case, I’m talking about what people thought of Wentz a year ago when, statistically, he was Prescott’s equal. Not the Wentz that fell off the cliff in 2020. Hurts showed he can run but is highly inconsistent as a passer. The Eagles, with almost $40 million in dead cap money, have nothing around Hurts so it’s just an unholy mess for 2021, anyway.
DETROIT — Jared Goff in for Matt Stafford. Not an upgrade.
You don’t surrender two first-round picks in a quarterback-for-quarterback deal and think you’re getting the better player. Sorry. More on this in a minute when we get to the Rams.
CHICAGO — Andy Dalton in for the Nick Foles/Mitch Trubisky combo platter. Not an upgrade.
Not, as far as I can tell, even a different guy. More consistent career numbers for Dalton but let’s not kid ourselves into thinking the Bears have fixed anything here.
NEW ORLEANS — Jameis Winston in for Drew Brees. Not an upgrade.
No further discussion required.
CAROLINA — Sam Darnold in for Teddy Bridgewater. UPGRADE! Ding, ding, ding.
Finally. And guess what? There is absolutely nothing to prove this is true. Even after going 4-11 last year in Carolina, Bridgewater’s won-loss record is much better. His career passer rating is much better. His career interception percentage is much lower.
So all we really have here is the belief (clearly Matt Rhule and Joe Brady’s belief shared by millions) that the Jets are a walking disaster and Darnold’s pro career doesn’t count, and if you go back to USC, he looked like he had a chance. And that’s really it.
SAN FRANCISCO — A rookie draft pick for Garoppolo. Not an upgrade.
Again, we are discussing the 2021 season. It’s possible Alabama’s Mac Jones or Ohio State’s Justin Fields or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance turns out to be a superior talent to Jimmy G. But it won’t happen as a rookie.
LOS ANGELES — Stafford for Goff. Upgrade.
And this one comes with my asterisk, even though the Darnold upgrade seems shaky as well. Think about when the Rams’ offense was whole during the last two or three years. Did anyone at that time think the club needed to move Goff, who did get them to a Super Bowl, in exchange for Stafford, who has never won a playoff game?
Stafford’s reputation has soared as the team crumbled around him in Detroit. When the Lions were pretty good, he frequently wasn’t. I will buy that he’s more willing to throw deep and do some things Sean McVay wants to see. But much of this trade hinges on the belief that McVay was never at fault and that all the Rams’ problems were the quarterback’s creation. We shall see about all that.