Dems wrong to ignore inf lation and cut taxes on the rich

WASHINGTON — Social media controversies aren’t themselves important, but can be revealing. It didn’t particularly matter when tech writer Sarah Jeong tweeted “all the stuff you see about inflation in the news is driven by rich people flipping their s--because their parasitic assets aren’t doing as well as they’d like and they’re scared that unemployment benefits + stimmy checks + $15 minimum wage + labor shortage is why.” Nor when David Roberts of Vox asserted voters were victims of “a massive, highly coordinated propaganda campaign across multiple media designed to freak them out about inflation.”

Both tweets are a good example of a real problem: a profound disconnect between the progressive left and much of the American working class. This disconnect also shows up increasingly in Democratic politics and policy, which are becoming absurdly attentive to the needs of the top 5% of earners.

Take the tax provisions of their new social spending bill. If Democrats can’t get closer to their roots, they risk becoming confined to affluent, educated neighborhoods.

Writer and photographer Chris Arnade, whose Substack chronicles his walks through working-class neighborhoods across the United States, recently noted on Twitter that, for the people he talks to, COVID-19 restrictions plus inflation have been a “one-two punch” that is going to be “just too much for Dems” unless something changes. In his newsletter, he writes, inflation is an “issue that touches every citizen, even the least political. Especially gas and food prices.”

Gas prices may be a minor annoyance for the highly educated individuals increasingly dominating the Democratic base: young urbanites, affluent suburban professionals and the occasional rural-dwelling environmentalist. But they’re a major hardship for many people with big vehicles, tight budgets and a lot of miles to drive every day — and since there are a whole lot of people in the latter group, it’s inadvisable to overlook their concerns.

Democrats are already struggling with working-class Hispanic voters, who appear to be rapidly defecting to the GOP. “Put simply,” says political scientist Ruy Teixeira, “there’s just no way Democrats can maintain a consistent hold on political power with this level of working-class support.” Asian voters are also a potential trouble spot. If this continues, gerrymandering and the electoral college could eventually become less of a problem than simple arithmetic: People with college degrees, where their numbers are improving, are only a third of the voting population.

Why then would the Build Back Better plan, which the House of Representatives finally passed Friday, allow federal deductions for up to $80,000 worth of state and local taxes.

The SALT deduction, as it’s called, was capped at $10,000 in 2017. Only rich people pay $80,000 or more to state and local governments — and if you are about to protest that people earning hundreds of thousands of dollars, at a minimum, aren’t necessarily rich — well, you have good company in the Democratic Party, but not among most voters in a country where the median household income is $67,521.

Raising the SALT cap this much would cost $275 billion over the next 10 years. It’s the highest-cost line-item in the bill — larger than $205 billion for family and medical leave, $175 billion for affordable housing, or $150 billion for expanding Medicaid community-based care. The Tax Policy Center estimates that more than half the benefit would go to households making $824,000 or more, who would get an average tax cut of about $35,000. The top 0.1% would average roughly $154,000.

And the middle class? “In 2022, only 4% of middle-income households would get a tax cut if Congress repeals the SALT cap. It would be worth about $20,” the Tax Policy Center says.

Policy-wise, it’s indefensible to shower so much money on the richest people in some of the richest states. The politics isn’t much better since the very SALT-y states overwhelmingly vote for Democrats. These aren’t the areas, or the people, that Democrats need to woo in the 2022 midterm or 2024 presidential election.

But those Democrat-heavy areas have a disproportionate influence on Democratic politics. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., represents one, as does House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.. They’re where you’ll find most of the left-wing activists, think tanks and other institutional players we might expect to see pressuring Democrats to ditch tax cuts for the rich.

Those people may not see why a gift to society’s least needy people is a moral and tactical mistake. But Republicans will be running on those tax cuts next year — and on higher gas prices. And self-absorbed Democrats are making it easy for them.