I-10 showdown: 1-10 against 1-10
Aggies to host UMass in finale
LAS CRUCES — Fellow independent football programs New Mexico State and Massachusetts end the year Saturday against each other in a matchup between two of the worst teams of the 2021 season.
But as Aggies grad transfer offensive lineman Eli Johnson says, there is still a lot to play for on Saturday despite the matching 1-10 records.
“You have two 1-10 programs with the loser debatably being the worst team in FBS — so in a lot of ways, who wins the football game will be the team that comes out and wants to play football more,” said Johnson, who is one of seven Aggies seniors playing their final game Saturday.
“You look at the state of both programs, there is a lot of turbulence right now in both programs. A lot of it will come down to which team wants to play ball on Saturday, and I think that is going to be us.”
The Aggies have lost seven straight games and their last 11 games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. UMass has lost five straight games.
Both teams likely will have a new head coach in place next season. Doug Martin’s contract ends in June, and it appears his nine-year tenure is coming to an end in Las Cruces. New Mexico State has reportedly targeted current Texas Christian interim coach Jerry Kill to take over.
UMass named Don Brown its next coach last week.
The Aggies are a 6½-point favorites after back-to-back losses to SEC programs.
Some keys:
Which offense will exploit clear defensive weakness?
This isn’t the first time I’ve mentioned the Aggies need to run the football despite Martin’s pass-happy offense.
But the Aggies should really run the football on Saturday if Martin wants to send his seniors out with a victory. UMass is No. 126 (of 130 FBS teams) in rush defense, allowing 239 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry. UMass is significantly better against the pass, ranking No. 70 in pass defense, allowing 234 yards per game.
The Aggies are second to last in FBS in pass defense and consistently have given up explosive plays through the air, allowing 306 passing yards per game. The Aggies have greatly improved this season against the run, ranking No. 106 in rush defense, allowing 188 yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry. The Aggies could finish the season allowing fewer than 200 rush yards per game for the first time since 2017.
Both defenses have very clear weaknesses. Which offense will emphasize attacking those weaknesses?
Win the turnover battle: Saturday’s game features two of the six worst defenses in FBS, so both teams probably feel like they will be able to move the ball if they don’t turn the ball over.
The Aggies are No. 127 in total defense, allowing 494 yards per game. UMass is No. 124, allowing 473 yards per game.
New Mexico State has a plus-four turnover margin on the season and UMass is minus-9 for the season. Barring a massive collapse on Saturday, the Aggies can finish with a positive turnover margin for the first time since they finished plus-1 in 2016.
Pass protection: Assuming the Aggies will continue to look to throw the football first, they need to give quarterback Jonah Johnson time to throw the football.
The Aggies have allowed 38 sacks this season or nearly four per game.
UMass has just nine sacks on the season, giving the Aggies’ offensive line a clear advantage in both the run and pass game.