Takeaways from July’s lackluster jobs report
WASHINGTON (AP) — A resurgence in COVID-19 cases didn’t shut off the American job creation machine last month — but it did slow it down.
Employers added 1.8 million jobs in July, slightly more than had been expected but far fewer than the gains of the previous two months. And while the unemployment rate dropped from 11.1% to 10.2%, it remains worrisomely high.
The Coronavirus outbreaks and the resulting lockdowns and fear that kept Americans away from restaurants, bars and shops hammered the economy in the spring. Employers slashed tens of millions of jobs as businesses shut their doors to slow the virus’ spread. The economy shrank at a harrowing annual rate of nearly 33% from April through June — by far the worst three months on record.
As businesses began to reopen, the job market came back, recording unprecedented gains in May and June. But a surge in confirmed viral cases as summer began heightened doubts about whether a meaningful recovery can be sustained, especially with Congress deadlocked over proposals to provide further aid to the unemployed and to struggling states and cities.
Some economists feared that the resurgence in COVID cases would stop the jobs recovery in its tracks. It didn’t. July’s 1.8 million new jobs marked the third-best month of job creation on record. The problem is that hiring was down sharply from May’s 2.7 million added jobs and June’s 4.8 million.
All told, the United States has recovered just 42% of the jobs that were lost in March and April. And the weakening pace of hiring suggests a long slog of a recovery ahead.
Rising viral cases in the South and West have forced many businesses to delay or reverse plans to reopen. In Texas, for instance, just 26% of bars were closed as of June 21. Two weeks later, the figure had shot up to 74%, though it has since declined slightly, according to the data firm Womply.
Moreover, a tentative economic comeback had been supported by a government relief program that included a crucial $600-a-week federal add-on to weekly state unemployment benefits. It allowed millions of unemployed people to afford necessities.
But the expanded jobless aid has now expired, and Congress has failed to extend it or provide other financial stimulus to Americans. The loss of that money means that tens of millions of jobless Americans can’t spend as much as they formerly did, which, in turn, means a drag on the economy.
“The loss of enhanced unemployment benefits and an inability to pass another stimulus bill will threaten a labor market recovery that already appears to be losing momentum,’’ Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West, wrote in a research report.