Restaurant owners balk at closure

LOS ANGELES (CNS) — Hours before a much-debated ban on in-person dining takes effect, Los Angeles County health officials Wednesday painted a dire picture of the current COVID-19 surge, saying the transmission rate has reached its highest point since March and could overwhelm hospitals within a month.

“We continue to be at a very difficult time in this pandemic, as is so much of the United States,” county Health Officer Dr. Muntu Davis said. “In fact, our situation is getting worse each day.”

According to current county estimates, every COVID-19 patient in the county is passing the virus to an average of 1.27 people — the highest transmission rate the county has seen since March, before any safety protocols such as face coverings and social distancing were in place.

Based on that transmission rate, health officials estimate that one of every 145 people in the county are now infected with the virus and transmitting it to others.

“This doesn’t include people that are currently hospitalized or isolated at home,” county Health Services Director Dr. Christina Ghaly said. “This is the estimate of people that are out and about and infecting others. They may not know they’re infected. They may know they’re infected and not be isolating. But they’re out there and they’re exposing other people to the virus.”

Ghaly said the number of people hospitalized due to the virus has jumped by 70% in the past two weeks, with the county now averaging about 300 new admissions daily.

“Based on the current estimate for (the virus transmission rate) and assuming that there’s no change in people’s behavior that would affect transmissions, there will likely be shortages in the number of hospital beds, and especially in ICU beds or intensive-care unit beds, over the next two to four weeks,” she said.

As of Wednesday, the county was reporting 1,682 people in hospitals due to COVID-19, filling roughly half of currently available bed space. Ghaly noted that given the current transmission rate, the number of hospitalized patients could double in two weeks, and quadruple in a month. She said hospitals have “surge” plans to increase the number of beds, but the availability of health care workers to staff those beds and treat patients is more limited.

The county’s state-adjusted seven-day average testing positivity rate was 6.6% as of Wednesday, up from 5.3% a week ago. The county was reporting a roughly 3.9% rate at the beginning of November.

The county announced another 4,311 coronavirus cases on Wednesday, lifting the countywide cumulative total since the pandemic began to 378,323.

The county also announced another 49 deaths, although four of those fatalities were actually reported Tuesday by Long Beach health officials. The countywide death toll stood at 7,543 as of Wednesday.

As of Wednesday, the following areas reported COVID-19 cases and deaths:

• Palmdale: 7,162 cases and 82 deaths.

• Lancaster: 5,906 cases and 72 deaths (includes cases associated with correctional facility outbreaks).

• Lake Los Angeles: 431 cases and four deaths.

• Quartz Hill: 312 cases and 10 deaths.

• Sun Village: 252 cases and three deaths.

• Littlerock/Pearblossom: 138 cases and no deaths.

• Littlerock: 120 cases and one death.

• Acton: 106 cases and three deaths.

• Agua Dulce: 59 cases and no deaths.

• Pearblossom/Llano: 29 cases and one death.

• Littlerock/Juniper Hills: 28 cases and no deaths.

• Leona Valley: 27 cases and no deaths.

• Elizabeth Lake: 15 cases and no deaths.

• Lake Hughes: 10 cases and no deaths.

• Llano: Six cases and no deaths.