Credit where due
Donald Trump is not all wrong about China. That gives his administration an opportunity to reshape what, if not handled carefully, could become the world’s most dangerous bilateral relationship.
During the presidential campaign Trump was mostly off- base in his assessment of the world. NATO is not obsolete. Japan and South Korea are not freeloaders. Trade among Mexico, Canada and the United States has been good for all three countries.
He was wrong in many particulars about China too. It is not, for example, a currency manipulator as Trump asserts.
But his underlying message of basic unfairness was right. China is not operating by the same rules as everyone else. When President Clinton promoted China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, the expectation was that China would grow more prosperous— and, in the process, more economically liberal and politically tolerant.
The first prediction has proved true, which by itself is enough to justify the West’s decision. Globalization has helped China bring hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, an unprecedented achievement of human progress. The country is stable and at peace, no small thing given its turbulent history. Many of its problems— smog, traffic, school access— are challenges of a middle class that barely existed two decades ago.
But the Communist Party is becoming more repressive, not less.
It’s easy to describe how not to respond to all of this. Initiating a trade war by slapping tariffs on Chinese products would likely harm Chinese and Americans alike without accomplishing much.
Trump provided a case study of how not to do things when he chatted by phone with Taiwan’s president. The conversation itself, though a departure from convention, was not unreasonable: Taiwan is a democratic ally, so why shouldn’t the two leaders talk?
But Trump followed the conversation with a tweet that positioned the phone call, which angered China’s rulers, as payback for Chinese misbehavior: “Did China ask us if it was OK to devalue their currency ( making it hard for our companies to compete), heavily tax our products going into their country ( the U. S. doesn’t tax them) or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea?” he asked. “I don’t think so!”
So if China behaved better, would Trump cold- shoulder Taiwan? Would he ask Beijing’s permission before taking another call? That’s precisely the wrong message.
The Trump administration can’t chart China’s course. But it can have some influence if it engages more actively in the region and stays faithful to American values and those of democratic allies. Attention to human rights shouldn’t be traded away for economic concessions; on the contrary, free- market principles and political liberty are on the same side of the coin.
Trump should insist on more reciprocity in economic relations, but consistent with fairness and principles of economic freedom, not simply to gain an upper hand. American workers and firms would benefit, but the Chinese people would benefit most of all.