And the winners are …
Panel selects its favorites to take home Oscar gold this weekend.
The 89th annual Academy Awards will be broadcast Sunday night. As is our custom, we’ve assembled some highly invested industry observers and award mavens to help you — yes, you, dear reader — win your Oscar night party pool. This year’s panel: Sam Blair ( SB), retired Little Rock Central High School college counselor, our resident armchair critic and a frequent contributor to our blood, dirt & angels blog; Jennifer Boulden ( JB), associate editor of Arkansas Living magazine and freelance wordsmith; DannyJoe Crofford ( DJC), longtime friend of the program; Dan Lybarger ( DL), our Kansas City- based film critic and “the Nate Silver of Oscar picks,’’ ( but he’d like to be the Alan Lichtman); your humble correspondent Philip Martin ( PM); Jonathan Nettles ( JN), film critic for KHTV, who is still upset over the Academy’s snubbing of The Intouchables in 2012; our day copy desk chief and invaluable font of cinematic history, Joe Riddle ( Joe); “the Gary Johnson of Oscar handicappers,” film director, screenwriter and impresario Jay Russell ( JR); and Philadelphia resident, Movies in the Park founder Blake Rutherford ( BR).
BEST PICTURE
Arrival Fences Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water Hidden Figures La La Land — SB, JB, DJC, DL, JN, JR, BR Lion Manchester by the Sea Moonlight — PM, Joe
Comments: Since I’m hardly a serious competitor, all my picks this year will be for the films I’d like to see win. And since this is my column, all my comments go first. SB: Loving should have been nominated. Manchester should win. JB: Never
bet against a crowd- pleasing Hollywood movie. DJC: Hidden Figures should win. DL: Manchester should win … I’ve rarely seen a movie about blue collar life that seemed more gripping and convincing. JN: I’d love to see Arrival or Moonlight win. Joe: This is a tough year for Best Film, as there are several worthy of that honor. My preference would be Hell or High Water. But Moonlight will win. All I know is La La Land is wildly over- rated. JR: In December, I would have said La La Land by a landslide. Today, I think Hidden Figures could sneak in and pull a Spotlight. ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea — JB, DL, JN, BR, Joe
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land — JR
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences — SB, DJC, PM
Comments: I would have liked to have seen Joel Edgerton nominated for his subtle work in Loving. DL: Let’s face it, Denzel Washington is simply a great actor. Affleck has won a lot of critics’ polls, but Washington, a two- time winner, has won the SAG- AFTRA award, and the Academy membership is mostly composed of thespians. JN: Ryan Gosling was nominated for the wrong film in this category. JR: Who do I want to win? Viggo Mortensen. ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle — PM, JN, Joe Ruth Negga, Loving Natalie Portman, Jackie Emma Stone, La La Land — JB, DJC, DL, JR, BR
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Comments: Meryl Streep’s obligatory nomination cost Amy Adams. That said, I think Huppert should but won’t win. SB: Not a weak link among them. Viola Davis should have been nominated in this category. JB: Oscar likes to crown the beautiful, young, smart, bankable actresses. DJC: Natalie Portman should win. DL: Possible spoiler? Portman. JN: I really want to see Ruth Negga win. JR: Who do I want to win? Natalie Portman because that was a no win role, and she pulled out a win ( meaning, a wonderful, surprising performance). SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight — JB, SB, DJC, DL, JN, Joe, JR, BR
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea — PM Dev Patel, Lion Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Comments: Toughest call for me. This is a strong category and all these performances were fantastic. SB: Should have been nominated — Simon Helberg in Florence Foster Jenkins. JB: Ali popped up in everything this year, and would make history as the first Muslim to win an acting Oscar. Joe: I think Dev Patel will win for his role in Lion. JR: They all should win. Especially Jeff Bridges for his 15 second reaction at the climax of that movie. And Michael Shannon, who came in like a shot of adrenaline to this movie. SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences — SB, JB, DJC, DL, JN, Joe, BR Naomie Harris, Moonlight Nicole Kidman, Lion Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures — JR
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Comments: SB: Should have been nominated — Tae Ri- Kim in The Handmaiden. JN: I’d love to see Naomie Harris win. Joe: Davis deserves it for her fine work in Fences, AND it is her turn. JR: The supporting roles this year were the standouts to me. ANIMATED FEATURE FILM Kubo and the Two Strings Moana My Life as a Zucchini The Red Turtle — PM, JR Zootopia — SB, JB, DJC, DL, JN, Joe, BR
Comments: So- so year for cartoons, but Zootopia and The Red Turtle would contend in almost any year. JB: Zootopia for DMV sloths. DL: Kubo
should win. FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Land of Mine, Denmark A Man Called Ove, Sweden The Salesman, Iran — SB, JB, DL, PM, JR, BR Tanna, Australia Toni Erdmann, Germany
Comments: I’ve only seen three of the five, which is better than most of our panel. My favorite foreign language film of 2016 was Iceland’s Rams. SB: The Handmaiden should have been nominated. DJC: No pick. JN: No pick. I did not see any … but I did watch Donnie Yen in the Ip Man trilogy on Netflix, and
those were pretty good. JR: I’m going to pick The Salesman, because Trump made the filmmaker stay home. DOCUMENTARY ( FEATURE) Fire at Sea I Am Not Your Negro — PM, JR Life, Animated O. J.: Made in America — SB, JB, DL, BR
13th — JN
Comments: A very strong field, but I would have liked to have seen Kate Plays Christine and Two Trains Running get some recognition. But I Am Not Your Negro deserves to win. SB: Command and Control should have been nominated. DIRECTOR Arrival Hacksaw Ridge, Mel Gibson
La La Land, Damien Chazelle — SB, JB, DJC, DL, JN, JR, BR
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan — Joe
Moonlight, Barry Jenkins — PM
Comments: Jenkins over Lonergan by a micron. SB: Should have been nominated — David Mackenzie for Hell or High Water. JB: It would make history if Moonlight’s Barry Jenkins became the first black Oscar winner in directing. DL: The guild awards have gone Chazelle’s way, and the movie is a remarkable technical achievement. It’s too bad he didn’t pick a leading man who could sing. Joe: I hope Kenneth Lonergan wins. JR: Chazelle will win, and I want him to win because of Whiplash, which was a better movie. ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival, Eric Heisserer — JN
Fences, August Wilson — JR
Hidden Figures, Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi Lion, Luke Davies Moonlight, Barry Jenkins,
Tarell Alvin McCraney — SB, JB, DJC, DL, Joe, BR
Comments: Not sure Moonlight should really be considered adapted, but under these rules it gets my vote. Otherwise I would have picked Manchester. DJC: Hidden Figures should win. JR: Tough to beat a dead guy. Who do I want to win? Barry Jenkins or Luke Davies. Both great scripts. ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water, Taylor Sheridan
La La Land, Damien Chazelle — DJC, DL, JR
The Lobster, Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou
Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan — SB, JB, JN, Joe, BR
20th Century Women, Mike Mills
Comments: I maintain that Jeff Nichols’ Loving should have been nominated, in this category. SB: Should have been nominated — Ira Sachs for Little Men. DJC — Hell or High Water should win. JB: Lonergan’s biggest competition comes from a sweep by La La Land or the tight and quotable Hell or High Water. DL: Lonergan or Sheridan should win. Joe: Best Screenplay belongs to Taylor Sheridan for Hell or High Water, but I think Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea will win, and both are deserving.
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