Russia rekindles its interest in Afghanistan
WASHINGTON — As the United States’ effort to end 16 years of war in Afghanistan yields little progress, Russia is resurrecting its own interest in the “graveyard of empires.” The jockeying includes engaging the Taliban and leading a new diplomatic effort to tackle Afghanistan’s future, with or without U. S. support.
Uncertain of Russia’s intentions, President Donald Trump’s administration will stay away when Russia hosts regional powers China, India, Iran and Pakistan, and several Central Asian countries, for another set of Afghan talks next month. Afghanistan’s government is attending, but the U. S. declined an invitation, saying it wasn’t consulted ahead of time. No one has invited the Taliban.
For Russia, dogged by memories of the Soviet Union’s disastrous 1980s occupation of Afghanistan, it’s a surprising turn at the head of the country’s peace table. And it coincides with the Kremlin’s campaign to wield greater international authority at the U. S.’ expense elsewhere, including intervening in Syria’s war and pushing for a settlement on President Bashar Assad’s and its own terms. Moscow even has sought to broker new Israeli- Palestinian negotiations, challenging Washington’s grip on the Mideast peace process.
For the United States, the new Russian foray into Afghanistan may represent another worrying consequence of a perceived U. S. retrenchment. The perception has intensified overseas as Trump formulates new policy. Since taking office, he has scarcely mentioned Afghanistan, the U. S. military’s largest deployment in a war zone.
“Russia sees a gap and is trying to fill it,” said Jonah Blank, a South Asia expert at Rand Corp. “It’s looking around for opportunities, for any place where it can expand its own influence and freedom to pursue its own interests, and undermine U. S. alliances and partnerships.”
Although the U. S. is sitting out the Russia conference, officials said the State Department still wants to work with Russia and others to encourage Afghan peace talks. But it is trying to get Russia and others to increase pressure on the Taliban, said officials who weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the diplomacy and requested anonymity.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will discuss the matter in Russia’s capital next month.
President Vladimir Putin’s government is an unlikely peace broker in Afghanistan, but the Afghans are grappling with great uncertainty.
They’re waiting to see whether the U. S. sends more troops — as Gen. John Nicholson, top U. S. military commander in Afghanistan, advocates — or adjusts strategy as Taliban attacks and Afghan military setbacks increase. In the past year, insurgents have sought to overrun several provincial capitals. Last week, they captured a southern district in Helmand province, which U. S. and British troops fought bitterly to give to the government. The U. S. maintains 8,400 troops in Afghanistan, training local forces and conducting counterterrorism operations.
Russia has started seeing the Taliban as a largely local force, not an international jihadi threat, and a potential partner in combating Islamic State attempts to gain a foothold in Afghanistan.
“Differentiating between good terrorists and bad terrorists [ is] a major mistake,” Homayun Qayoumi, a top aide to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, told a Washington audience this month.
After visiting Moscow this month, Hanif Atmar, Afghanistan’s national security adviser, said he received assurances Russia was promoting reconciliation and not providing military support. He welcomed the approach.
But Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the top U. S. general in Europe, became the latest senior military official to accuse Russia of undermining U. S. and NATO allies in Afghanistan, warning a congressional hearing last week of expanding Russian influence on the Taliban. Russia may be supplying the insurgents, he said.