Weather unbalances Africa food supply

JOHANNESBURG — Africa’s corn harvest this year is a tale of two extremes as worries about overflowing silos and rotting crops in the south contrast with the east where supermarkets are running short of the staple food.

Zambia and South Africa are both predicting record output of the grain, while Zimbabwe may meet its domestic needs for the first time since it began seizing land from white farmers in 2000. Yet in East Africa, 17 million people may be facing hunger, and concerns about food shortages are driving up prices as governments scramble to secure imports.

“It all comes down to weather,” said Wessel Lemmer, a senior agricultural economist at Barclays Africa Group Ltd.’ s Absa unit in Johannesburg. “There’s usually an inverse relationship between rainfall in south and east Africa, but this year has been more at the extreme end of that cycle.”

Volatile weather conditions, prompted by the 2015- 16 El Nino weather pattern and exacerbated by climate change, have caused extremes of drought and heavy rain across sub- Saharan Africa. The resulting variations in crop yields are stretching the continent’s storage capacity and transport links while highlighting cross- border trade barriers that make it difficult for food to get where it’s most needed.

“Transport costs, import- export bans, restrictions on genetically modified grain and local politics all hinder trade,” said Jacques Pienaar, a Bloemfontein, South Africa- based analyst at Commodity Insight Africa. “In Africa, you can only move so much produce.”