Championship contenders
MARTIN TRUEX JR.
WHY HE’LL WIN Truex won the regular season title with 4 victories, 10 top-five finishes and had 18 stage victories for 53 playoff points that he can keep through the first three playoff rounds. Truex has eight victories over the past two seasons and has dominated at times for Furniture Row Racing.
WHY HE WON’T He’s had some bad luck and a case could be made he should have at least four more victories. Will a late caution come back to bite him when it matters most?
KYLE LARSON
WHY HE’LL WIN Larson has two victories over the past four races and is the hottest driver in NASCAR. Larson proved he was worth the hype that followed him into the sport as one of the top young drivers of a generation and won four times this season. He’s one of many drivers facing sponsor woes — Target is leaving at the end of the season — but a championship could make him attractive to a Fortune 500 company.
WHY HE WON’T Larson knows how easily a strong season can slip away early in the playoffs. He suffered tire and mechanical woes in the first two Chase races last season and was never a factor.
KYLE BUSCH
WHY HE’LL WIN Count out Busch? No thanks. Busch was in the final four last season and the 2015 series champion won twice this season and rolls into Chicagoland with six consecutive top10 finishes.
WHY HE WON’T Joe Gibbs Racing was solid but hardly spectacular and Toyota’s magic horsepower was found instead in Truex’s car.
BRAD KESELOWSKI
WHY HE’LL WIN The 2012 series champion won twice this twice, secured a new contract with team owner Roger Penske and is always a threat.
WHY HE WON’T The Fords haven’t shown the reliable speed needed to win a championship and Keselowski stumbles into Chicagoland without a finish better than 11th in his past five races.
JIMMIE JOHNSON
WHY HE’LL WIN Because he’s Jimmie Johnson. Johnson won three times in a bit of a down year for Hendrick Motorsports. But no driver dominated the Chase era like Johnson. With an eighth championship, he would snap a tie with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for the most ever by a NASCAR driver. He won titles in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2016.
WHY HE WON’T He can’t win ’em all.
KEVIN HARVICK
WHY HE’LL WIN Stewart-Haas Racing is facing lineup upheaval in 2018 with Danica Patrick out the door and maybe even Kurt Busch. But Harvick just keeps rolling along as the star at SHR and the 2014 champ is one of the sport’s best Game 7 racers. He won at Homestead in 2014 to clinch the title.
WHY HE WON’T Harvick has just one victory and his SHR team has been hit-or-miss for most of the season.
DENNY HAMLIN
WHY HE’LL WIN Hamlin has two victories this season and says he’s as mentally tough as he’s ever been after a series of near-misses in his bid for his first Cup championship. The 2016 Daytona 500 winner should have at least one or two championships by now and is running out of time at JGR to get one.
WHY HE WON’T Hamlin is tight with Michael Jordan. But in crunch time at Homestead, Hamlin has been more like Jordan with the Washington Wizards than the Chicago Bulls.
RICKY STENHOUSE JR.
WHY HE’LL WIN Stenhouse posted his first two career Cup victories this season. He gave team owner Jack Roush the lift the team had needed for years and could be a threat to advance a couple of rounds.
WHY HE WON’T Hasn’t finished better than 14th in his past nine races.
THE REST
Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, Kasey Kahne, Austin Dillon, Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray CAN ANY OF THEM DO IT? Kenseth and Kahne have yet to land rides for 2018. Busch still needs to lock up sponsorship for a guaranteed return to Stewart-Haas. Elliott could match his dad, Hall of Fame driver Bill Elliott, as a NASCAR champion. Everyone loves an underdog — Newman once made it to NASCAR’s final four with a winless season — but it’s hard to imagine a champion emerging out of the bottom of the playoff pack.