Spain’s brinkmanship

Spain is facing its worst political crisis since its return to democracy 40 years ago, thanks to the inflexibility of two key leaders. Carles Puigdemont, the president of the region of Catalonia, insisted on going forward with a referendum on independence against the ruling of Spain’s constitutional court and the sentiment of most of his constituents; now he refuses to forswear a declaration of independence. In response, Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s conservative prime minister, has reached for a drastic remedy: a takeover of the province by federal authorities, which could provoke mass civil disobedience or even violence.

Puigdemont and his followers badly overestimated their ability to mobilize support for their separatist cause. Only about 40 percent of voters turned out for the referendum; Puigdemont’s claim that the 90 percent pro-independence vote among that minority is a mandate rings hollow.

Puigdemont persists, threatening to have the Catalan parliament vote on a formal declaration of independence.

Moscow will cheer if the standoff between Rajoy and Puigdemont destabilizes Spanish democracy. Western governments, including the Trump administration, should be pushing harder for compromise.

There are two promising avenues. The first is a constitutional reform that would allow regions such as Catalonia more autonomy; Rajoy agreed to a proposal by the opposition Socialist Workers’ Party to have a congressional committee study it. The other is a fresh regional election in Catalonia, which is the right way to challenge Puigdemont’s leadership.

The Catalan opposition wants an election, as does Madrid. But any vote must not exclude pro-independence parties, no matter their legal wrongs. Rajoy’s hard-line actions risk driving more voters into the separatist camp. He should refrain from more repression and push for a political solution.