Whoever wins, GOP loses

Dilemma? Catch-22? Hobson’s choice? They’re all good ways to say why Republicans are so anguished over next week’s special Senate election in Alabama. Is it better for their candidate, Roy Moore, who has been credibly accused of sexually abusing underage girls, to win and keep the party’s slim Senate majority? Or would he be such an albatross, causing bitter intra-party schisms, that it’s actually better for Republicans if Democrat Doug Jones wins?

“We don’t need a liberal person in there, a Democrat,” President Donald Trump said in embracing Moore.

A few Republicans have come out against seating Moore, demanding a new election. That might present legal challenges. The political problems would be worse.

Some Republicans hope that the sexual harassment charges against Democrats like Al Franken will limit the damage if Moore wins and is seated. But the specific charges, preying on underage girls, make that unlikely. Democrats would hang the judge around Republican candidates next year.

For moral and political reasons, some Republicans conclude that it would be better if Jones, a moderate former prosecutor, wins.

That would be a nightmare for Mitch McConnell. It would reduce his Senate margin so he could afford to lose only one Republican instead of two on most votes. That’s a big difference, especially given the panic likely to set in among elements of the party if they lose in deep red Alabama after Democratic gains in elections around the country four weeks ago.

Moreover, it threatens their majority after next year’s elections, which once seemed secure because the vast majority of contested seats are held by Democrats, some in strong Republican states. But with the unpopularity of Trump, these dynamics have changed.

Whatever the outcome, there will be no joy among Republicans as they watch the returns from down South next Tuesday.