QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Somebody probably said to the Trump hierarchy that the president better go to Farm Bureau and show some interest in agriculture. Changes to the corporate tax may create jobs, but this is not reflected in the lives or outlooks of many farmers.” Richard Lugar, former U.S. senator from Indiana

Farmers are looking for a sign from President Donald Trump that their concerns mean as much to him as their votes do.

Trump is scheduled to speak Monday at the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual conference in Nashville, Tenn., the first sitting president to address the group in 26 years. He’ll be getting a warm welcome, even though there are policies his administration is pursuing that run counter to some farm interests.

“It doesn’t get any better than to have the president recognize the importance of farmers and ranchers to the rural economy,” said Kalena Bruce, a 32-year-old rancher from Cedar County, Mo., where Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a 5-to1 ratio in the 2016 election. “Rural America still supports President Trump.”

As he approaches the anniversary of his first year in office, the president is struggling to fulfill his campaign promises to segments of his voting base, including farmers, and his approval ratings have been stuck at historically low levels.

Several of his policy stances — from threatened withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement, to immigration restrictions that could choke the flow of migrants to harvest U.S. crops, to cutting crop-insurance payments popular in agriculture — run contrary to the positions represented by Farm Bureau, the biggest U.S. farmer organization.

Still, Trump’s ties to rural voters are far from broken despite some strains, said Johnathan Hladik, policy director for the Center for Rural Affairs in Lyons, Neb. An event that brings together individual farmers and representatives of major agribusinesses gives him a venue to shore up support.

“A lot of farm interests have felt overlooked or ignored in the first year of the Trump administration,” he said. “Farm Bureau is the place where you can get the most people in one place and rally the troops.”

The White House declined to preview the president’s address.

The Farm Bureau has a far reach, with offices in 2,795 of the nation’s 3,144 counties. It’s long been recognized as the top farmer group in Washington, where agribusiness is listed as the 10th-biggest industry in campaign contributions, just behind energy and ahead

of construction, transportation and defense, according to the Center for Responsive Politics in Washington. The Farm Bureau spent more than $3 million on lobbying in 2017, second only to Monsanto Co. among organizations that serve farmers.

It’s also long been associated with conservative politics, holding more influence in Republican administrations. Farmers, though, are also swing voters, especially in states such as North Dakota and Indiana, where incumbent Democratic Sens. Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly are up for re-election this year. Trump won both states by wide margins in 2016.

While other parts of the U.S. economy are going strong, farmer finances have struggled since the end of a commodities boom in 2013. Profits in 2017 are estimated at less than half the record levels of four years earlier.

Crop prices have been stable, but low. Futures for corn, the most-valuable crop, closed last year at just over $3.50 a bushel, a fall of 0.4 percent from the previous

year. Livestock has fared better, with cattle futures traded in Chicago up 4.7 percent, but well below boom-time prices. That has farm-state members of Congress calling for more generous payments under a new law governing farm subsidies due this year.

Farming is one of the few sectors of the U.S. economy with a trade surplus, and Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has touted the benefits of the NAFTA agreement with Canada and Mexico, even as Trump has threatened to scrap the deal. The sluggish economy and at-odds position on trade and other issues, such as immigration, which many farmers see as necessary for their harvests, mean farmer support for Trump can’t be taken for granted, said former Sen. Richard Lugar, an Indiana Republican who served as chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee.

Other than a June speech in Iowa in which he called for investment in rural broadband, Trump hasn’t talked a lot about farmers, Lugar said.

“Somebody probably said to the Trump hierarchy that the president better go to Farm Bureau and show some interest in agriculture,” Lugar said. “Changes to the corporate

tax may create jobs, but this is not reflected in the lives or outlooks of many farmers.”

Bruce said she’s looking for “reassurance that we aren’t going to lose our exports,” and hopes that Farm Bureau might help sway Trump a bit on trade while he’s in Nashville. But she, and other farmers planning to attend the speech, said they have plenty to like.

“One of Trump’s campaign promises was he would get regulations off our back, and you can see that happening,” said Scott VanderWal, a corn and soybean grower near Volga, S.D., 60 miles north of Sioux Falls. He cited White House moves to roll back a water rule detested by many farmers and his support for cornbased ethanol as two examples of Trump having agriculture at heart. The president would get more done if Congress were more aligned with him, VanderWal said.

“Everyone is frustrated with Congress,” said VanderWal, whose county, which includes a state university, gave Trump 53 percent of its vote. “The president has tried to do a lot of things, but members of Congress can’t get on the same page.”

Josh Ogle, a 40-year-old grower of cotton, corn, soybeans

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