ACES ON BRIDGE
Our ship of state, which recent storms have threatened to destroy, has come safely to harbor at last. — Sophocles
Even if playing a 16-18 no-trump, many Norths would choose that opening call — inflation has set in at bridge as in all walks of life. Regardless, NorthSouth will end up in three no-trump; but, as if to justify the upgrade, West holds a natural spade lead, and that puts the game in jeopardy.
Should South win or duck the opening lead? If he ducks, West continues with the spade jack, and declarer wins in dummy with the king. Declarer now leads a low diamond from dummy; when East takes his ace, he has no spade left to play, and whatever he shifts to will not cause declarer a problem. East will most probably try a heart. Declarer can win in his hand and knock out the diamond king, and can then easily win the rest of the tricks. (For the record, though, if spades had broken 4-3, the defenders could have scored only two tricks from each of the spade and diamond suits.)
There would have been a completely different outcome if declarer had taken the first spade trick. East would win the first diamond and would be able to lead his remaining spade. It would then be too late for declarer to hold up, for West would be able to win the second round of spades and continue with a third round. No matter what declarer did, West would set up the spades and regain the lead with the diamond king to cash out his spades and defeat the contract.
ANSWER: You have three plausible actions here. You can overcall one diamond, perhaps planning to double if the opponents agree a suit cheaply.You can double, making sure you find a major-suit fit cheaply, if you have one, and perhaps minimizing the risk for your side, while possibly missing no-trump. Or, my choice, you can overcall one no-trump — the path with the highest risk but largest reward. If you would like to contact Bobby Wolff, email him at bobbywolff@mindspring.com