Republicans’ 2020 problem

Jennifer Duffy of Cook Political Report writes, “So far, the 34 Senate contests on the ballot in 2020 feature 12 Democratic incumbents and 20 Republican incumbents: GOP U.S. Sens. Pat Roberts of Kansas and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee have announced that they will not seek re-election.”

She adds, “Only one incumbent—GOP U.S. Sen. John Cornyn of Texas—has a war chest over $5 million.”

And it is very possible Cornyn might draw a very competitive challenger, one with 100 percent name recognition in the state. According to Politico, “Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer met with former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke last week to discuss a possible 2020 Senate campaign against GOP Sen. John Cornyn, according to a source familiar with the meeting.”

Meanwhile, there are a batch of other Senate pickup opportunities for Democrats. The most vulnerable Republicans would be Susan Collins of Maine, who is under renewed heat for her support for Brett M. Kavanaugh and the misbegotten notion that he would defend Roe v. Wade; Cory Gardner of Colorado, which has become a reliably blue state in presidential years; and Martha McSally of Arizona.

And all that is before Republicans get to the overarching problem: President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. With the House in Democratic hands, the job of circling the wagons around Trump (including the rubber-stamping of his nominees) has fallen to the Senate.

While Senate incumbents usually enjoy a reputation distinct from the president of their party, in this case their sycophancy comes with a price: Their political future is now inextricably bound with Trump’s.