Fear the Overtime Primary

For the first time since 1968, Democrats could end their presidential primaries with no candidate taking the majority of delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot at their national convention.

That has prompted feverish speculation about a brokered convention, a fantasy long cherished by over-excited political reporters.

But there’s a more likely scenario that’s been overlooked: a bare-knuckle battle for delegates in June and July, well before the Milwaukee convention starts.

Call it the Overtime Primary—or, if you prefer, the Unattached Delegate Primary. If it happens, it could be decisive not only for the nomination, but for the party’s fortunes in the November election as well.

Under party rules, the convention’s first ballot is decided solely by the 3,979 delegates chosen by primaries and caucuses. To win, a candidate needs a majority of those delegates—at least 1,991.

But what if, when the primaries end, none of the candidates has enough?

That’s when the Overtime Primary kicks in. “From June until the opening of the convention, it’s going to be a madhouse,” Elaine Kamarck, a former aide to Bill Clinton and a member of the party’s rules committee, told me.

“The candidates will call delegates. They’ll call anybody who might influence delegates. They’ll cut deals with labor unions, because union delegates might follow their leaders. They’ll do whatever they can think of,” she predicted—including perhaps dangling a vice presidential nomination.

That’s called politics. But it’s an old-fashioned brand of politics most of us have never seen in real time.

If the candidate with the most primary votes doesn’t win the nomination, Sanders warned last week, “That would be a very divisive moment for the Democratic Party.”

That’s obviously true; any hard-fought outcome will be divisive. But it also sounds a little like a threat.

In 2016, when Sanders finished behind Clinton in both votes and delegates, Sanders’ campaign manager denounced the process as “rigged,” and many of his delegates walked out of the convention in Philadelphia.

This time, if Biden comes in second in primary votes but then cobbles together a majority of delegates, Sanders supporters will understandably be furious again.

And that’s only the first ballot. It gets worse. If the first ballot doesn’t produce a nominee, the party’s 775 so-called super-delegates, elected politicians and party leaders, are allowed to vote in later rounds.

Cue another walkout.

None of these scenarios look appetizing to Democrats who hope to unite for a tough campaign against President Donald Trump. The president is doing his best to stoke the division, warning that Democratic leaders are trying to steal the nomination from Sanders.

History suggests that parties that come out of their conventions deeply divided often do badly in the general election campaign that follows.

The Democratic convention won’t be contested, strictly speaking, if one of the candidates assembles a majority one way or another before the delegates arrive in Milwaukee.

But it’s almost certain to be angry and divisive—no matter who wins. It could be great political theater, too. That’s all good news for Trump.