Census counts will affect states’ congressional representation.

It’s got nothing to do with Super Tuesday

CERTAINLY you’ve begun to notice the commercials on television and radio, and we don’t mean for candidates. The American Census is underway, and the winding, wooded, deer-lined road we take to civilization each morning is blistered all over with Census signs. Make sure to be counted and all that.

The Census will be used to re-apportion congressional seats, as always. Few expect changes along those lines in Arkansas. But it is interesting to see where changes are expected.

For those who complain that red states have too much pull in Congress as it is, y’all might want to sit down.

Those who watch these things can speculate using estimates of yearly counts in these several states. According to The Hill, Texas and Florida have gained population—hundreds of thousands of people each—in the last year alone. What a coincidence: Neither state has a personal income tax. After this next Census, the state of Texas will probably pick up three congressional seats, from 36 to 39. And Florida will likely gain two, from 27 to 29.

States that are likely to lose seats in 2020 include California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, West Virginia and Ohio.

To be fair, a red state like Alabama might lose a seat, too, and a blue state like Oregon is scheduled to pick one up. But the trend is clear.

The most interesting part of The Hill’s report was this paragraph, dealing with a rather large state that’s often in the news:

“One of the most shocking results now projected for 2020 comes from California. Since statehood in 1850, the Golden State gained congressional seats after every decennial census due to massive population gains. But the cost of living, driven by sky-high taxes and onerous regulations, started to take a toll by 2010 when California failed to gain a new seat. Based on the 2019 estimates, it is likely that California will actually lose its first congressional seat since 1850 due to residents leaving the state.”

Not since before the Civil War . . . . And the numbers out of California would be far worse if not for (a) births and (b) people moving into the state from abroad. But even the influx of immigrants can’t make up for those Californians who, when they’re able, pick up and move to other states.

Arkansas could take advantage. If our leaders only would.

We’ve mentioned this idea before, but it never seems to gain traction:

What Arkansas needs to do with its income tax rates is promote economic growth. We have tough competition with border states, some of which have no state income taxes. But reducing the Arkansas income tax for everyone by a marginal amount is going to have only marginal results.

Arkansas could make national news by granting a moratorium on income taxes for five years to any new state resident. Those moving to Arkansas would not pay any state income taxes until after their fifth year in the state. This would put Arkansas on a very competitive basis with other states for new residents.

Since these would-be newcomers are not living or paying taxes here now, granting this exemption shouldn’t cost Arkansas anything. In addition, most retirees would move here with their savings accounts and open new deposits in local banks that could then loan money to stimulate even more economic growth.

Are there any other states that offer a temporary moratorium on income taxes? If so, we’re not aware of any.

This could work. After all, what do Texas and Florida have that Arkansas doesn’t? Besides hurricane warnings?

Californians are going east, young man. Let’s get in on the action. And once again make this state a Land of Opportunity.