Idlib marks grim anniversary
Syrian civil war starts 10th year; rebel corner set for fight
IDLIB, Syria — The city of Idlib is the last urban area still under opposition control in Syria, located in a shrinking rebel enclave in the northwestern province of the same name.
Syria’s civil war, which entered its 10th year on Monday, has shrunk in geographical scope — focusing on this tiny corner of the country — but the misery wreaked by the conflict has not diminished.
A bloodier and possibly more disastrous phase is on the horizon if government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, go ahead with threats to recapture Idlib city and the remaining rebel-held north, crammed with over 3 million people.
Over the past three months, government troops recaptured nearly half of Idlib province and surrounding areas, forcing nearly 1 million to flee their homes, around half of them into other parts of the province, including Idlib city. During the advances, government forces neared Idlib city outskirts, bombing parts and sending thousands fleeing north.
The government offensive has been paused by a Russian-Turkish cease-fire deal, leaving residents of the rebel enclave, including Idlib city, in a state of terrifying limbo. They are skeptical that the cease-fire will last and well aware they are likely the next target of the government’s assault.
Though government airstrikes have hit it regularly, the city has suffered far less violence than other places since 2015, when rebels seized it from government forces. Over the years since, multiple waves of displaced people flowed in from other opposition areas farther south retaken by the government, and now more from other parts of Idlib.
Dozens of tents lined the main road into the city. Other families were crammed into bombed out buildings, the city’s stadium or unfinished construction sites. Shops have sprung around the enclave bearing the names of different cities and towns in Syria — a testimony and a token to the homes they left behind.
The city has been shaped by the different layers of conflict. Many city streets are clean and well maintained by the opposition administration. But on other streets, buildings are in ruins — some wrecked in previous fighting, others bombed during the most recent offensive. Residents can point out buildings and remember the date they were hit. The city gets only two hours of electricity a day.
If President Bashar Assad resumes the government offensive, everything here will be vulnerable.
In past advances, the government’s tactic was to bombard urban areas relentlessly — including with Russian warplanes — flattening residential areas and pummeling the population into submission. Residents, opposition activists and fighters were offered the choice either to stay under “reconciliation” deals or be evacuated to the rebel-held north.
In Idlib, the residents overwhelmingly fear living under government rule but have nowhere else to run, with Turkey refusing to open its border wall to more refugees.
Yasser Aboud said it was out of the question for him to accept “reconciliation.” He said his family fled his hometown of Saraqeb “not fearing death but fearing to be under the rule of Assad again.”
He took part in the early anti-government protests in 2011 and was detained for it; two of his brothers were shot and killed by government forces in 2012; his mother-in-law was killed in an airstrike the same year.
If Assad captures Idlib, “we will run to Turkey, we will sleep under the [border] wall,” Aboud said. “The most crucial thing is that we won’t enter territories” held by the government.
Turkey has deployed thousands of troops in the enclave, operating alongside its Syrian opposition allies. That has diminished the lock on power that the al-Qaida-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has held over Idlib since it drove out rival factions in past fighting.
Mustafa Berro, a commander of a Turkey-backed rebel faction from Aleppo that has now sent forces to Idlib, said his fighters have not lost faith.
“We are worse off than in 2014” — when rebels held nearly half of Syria — “but we are better off than 2011” when they had no territory to control, he said. “We still have an area to work from and operate in.”
The widespread displacement of past weeks has strained international aid deliveries into the enclave, where 1.5 million receive food assistance. In January alone, 1,227 trucks were sent across the border from Turkey, the largest number in seven years of cross-border operations, said U.N. Assistant Secretary of State Kevin Kennedy, who is also regional humanitarian coordinator for Syria.
The cease-fire has allowed deliveries to increase, but Kennedy warned that resumption of hostilities in the densely populated urban area would mean more displacement. “The needs are so enormous, the gaps will always be there unfortunately,” he said.