Distancing socially

Some data show it might be working

The governor, like many governors, has asked Arkansans not to gather in groups. Actually, the governor of Arkansas isn’t asking: He’s issued a directive. The state has shut down public schools and barber shops. And restaurants are take-out only.

Does social distancing work? Common sense says it does. But do early numbers tell us anything?

Once again, Donald G. McNeil Jr. is back in the news—where he works. His is now a regular byline in The New York Times. He’s on the plague beat. His paper says he’s a science reporter covering epidemics and diseases. And occasionally he’s on podcasts analyzing this national crisis.

This week he reported on a small(ish) company out of San Francisco named Kinsa Health, which sells “Internet-connected thermometers,” and can track fever cases. It has created a national map showing fever levels. You can see it here: healthweather.us

The good news, for what it’s worth (and if a sampling of thermometers is trustworthy), is that the company sees a decline in “feverish illnesses.” The company is quick to stress, in italics no less, “This does not mean that covid-19 cases are declining.”

What it may mean is that harsh measures, such as stay-at-home orders, help. To the point that it can be traced with fevers on these thermometers.

This might not just be a one-off in the technology section of the paper-of-record. Here is part of another story from Politico’s Monday edition:

“SAN FRANCISCO—State leaders and doctors are cautiously optimistic that the Bay Area’s early moves to lock down residents two weeks ago have prevented surges of coronavirus patients from overwhelming the region’s health care capacity thus far.

“Six Bay Area counties were first in the country to adopt aggressive tactics with an enforceable March 16 order requiring residents to stay at home. Gov. Gavin Newsom quickly followed with a statewide order three days later restricting the state’s 40 million residents from all but essential activities.

“After 14 days—the outermost period at which symptoms are believed to emerge post-infection—doctors at area hospitals are now reporting fewer cases than they expected to see at this point, and officials credit the lockdown with stemming the tide of patients they feared would flood into emergency rooms.”

In Washington state, the place where the new coronavirus was first discovered on these shores, dispatches say strict orders of containment by the government may be paying off. The virus there killed 37 of the first 50 people known to come down with it, but deaths are not rising as fast as the death rates in other states. The virus scared the people of Washington into shutting down almost everything non-essential. The streets there are empty and silent.

And the hospitals are not overwhelmed. But instead are handling the situation.

This is the exact thing Gov. Asa Hutchinson has said he wants to happen in Arkansas: flatten that curve. That is, keep people from getting sick all at once, and overwhelming the hospitals. If we can stretch this thing out, as San Francisco apparently is doing, there’ll be enough nurses, doctors and hospital beds to go around.

But this only works if people follow the federal guidelines. And if the guidelines are strong enough.

So the question has to be: Are the guidelines strong enough in Arkansas? As this is written, at least 30 states and the District of Columbia have issued stay-at-home orders. Those states and cities have between twothirds and three-quarters of the population of the United States.

Those stay-at-home orders are different state to state. In D.C., violating the order subjects a body to a $5,000 fine and maybe jail. In Georgia, the governor is being pressured by mayors to do more. Florida is, well, Florida.

Should Asa Hutchinson take the next step and issue such an order? Both Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx showed data Tuesday that confirms that the stronger the mitigation efforts, the sooner the curve flattens, which means fewer cases and fewer deaths. And cities and states that have stronger stay-athome orders are doing better. As close as we are to Louisiana and that state’s high numbers, where they were literally dancing in the streets at last month’s Mardi Gras, it would seem something Asa Hutchinson should consider. The less we mitigate, the longer this thing could go on in Arkansas—even while other areas see decline.

We can beat this, y’all. But we haven’t beaten it yet.