Living with uncertainty

People, communities and insti- tutions across Arkansas have been hammered unmercifully by the effects of covid-19. With so many businesses and schools closed, the financial effects of this virus will continue to unfold through 2020 and into next year.

At this point that’s stating the obvious for anyone who hasn’t been in a coma since January.

In a discussion with Dr. Randy Esters, president of North Arkansas College in Harrison, I’ve learned just how precarious this pandemic has become, especially for community colleges across Arkansas.

“We are working hard to protect students and employees, but our fall semester is uncertain at best,” he said. “The enrollment is down right now, but we think it will bounce back some once businesses open and students can get a taste of normal. The financial impact of this on everyone is profound.”

His predicament, sadly enough, is similar to others in higher education and elsewhere as they grapple with how to cope with a future they can neither see nor predict.

For instance, Northark, with about 1,500 enrollment, has reduced its budget by a little over a million dollars, and its leaders are nervous they didn’t cut deeply enough. Thankfully for the college, its leaders have been very good stewards of public money over the past few years and were working on building reserves. That has left them fairly well-situated to downsize and sacrifice the money earmarked for reserves and improvements to aging buildings, Esters said.

“We planned on a 10 percent reduction in enrollment and an 8 to 10 percent reduction from the state. We did get almost $1.5 million from the federal government, and that helps. We know our students have been hit like we have, so we will use at least half of that to directly help students with cash grants. The remainder must go for costs directly related to the covid-19 outbreak. Restrictions on these federal funds means what was designated for the institutions is not helpful to fill the holes indirectly caused by the pandemic. And those are huge holes.”

Esters said his anxiety also stems from the possibility covid-19 will resurface in the fall. “We will make plans, but what will the impact be? We have all heard that by then we will be better-prepared and better-equipped to deal with it. That may be true. But the reality is work-force training and hands-on trades are difficult to teach effectively online—thus the name “‘hands-on’.”

So what happens if the college is three or four weeks into the fall semester and the scourge returns for round two? Does it send everyone home and leave the prospective work force untrained?

“We are planning smaller class sizes. More sections so students can be spread out. Still, we are all nervous about what happens if there are cases on campus. What will the optics of all that be? Will the public think we did the right thing by taking precautions and carrying on, or will we be vilified for putting students at risk?”

(Sounds a lot like the national political dramas I watch unfolding daily on TV. You’re damned in the mainstream media if you do, or if you don’t.)

Should fall enrollment drop more than anticipated. Esters said he (and, I suspect, leaders of other community colleges) will be forced to consider imposing early retirements, furloughs, layoffs or some combination. “About 75 percent of our budget is invested in our employees. We already have cut as deeply as we can and also dipped into reserves as much as is prudent at this time. The next significant savings might have to come from personnel.

“We do not want that to happen, and we will do everything we can for all of our people,” he said.

Trying to plan for any type of resurgence in the community college and its work-force training is extremely difficult because of the nature of instruction. “We will go online or to video classes if we need to, and we are looking at GoPro cameras for instructors. But there are no good answers; just best answers,” he said. “We are proud of the quality of instruction and affordability we offer. We will not sacrifice either on the altar of ‘making do,’ but they may be injured during this battle.”

Asked to rank his anxiety level about the coming fall from one to 10 over such an unprecedented mess, Esters put the likely number at 9.5. “It’s said we should hope for the best and plan for the worst. I am a paid planner and paid to lead the college through the worst of times, as all presidents and chancellors are. We can be optimistic and have to exude that persona, but the reality is, we all have to plan for a resurgence and what-if scenarios.”

Unfortunately, he added, those scenarios don’t lend themselves to worry-free nights and weekends. Then he managed a grin. “Yes, we will get through this. Yes, we will have brighter days ahead. Yes, life is good in general. Yes, leaders and employees in every sector, not just higher ed, are feeling the weight of this war and the lingering nature of the threat is taking a toll.”

During that lighter moment, Esters said he had to smile when recalling a scene in Talladega Nights where Will Ferrell’s character thinks he is on fire, and his friend has to go help put out the invisible fire. “That’s where we are,” he said. “We are fighting an invisible fire.

“But we shall prevail.”

Hearing Miss Willie

Willie Mae Harris testified before a

Parole Board member at her clemency hearing last week. Now the entire board is to meet in the coming week to decide if the blind 73-year-old grandmother imprisoned for 34 years will be freed under clemency granted by Gov. Asa Hutchinson.

That decision can’t come quickly enough, considering her pre-existing health conditions and the spread of covid-19 inside the state’s Department of Correction. Even if the board agrees with the governor’s decision, the state of Texas, where “Miss Willie” hopes to relocate with her family, will then have to determine the suitability of that plan.

I’ve never been appointed to a parole board. But were I serving on this one, I’d do everything in my power to facilitate her release before the possibility of becoming infected could become reality. Considering the hell she endured in her abusive marriage that led to the death of her husband, I’d say this respected lady and model prisoner has endured more than sufficient punishment. A covid-19 infection under her health circumstances could well be tantamount to a death sentence.

Now go out into the world and treat everyone you meet exactly like you want them to treat you.