Revival hope lies in virus-beset Indian state

NEW DELHI — As Indians await details of a coronavirus relief package Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced to jump-start the economy, the virus outbreak in the financial capital, Mumbai, and elsewhere in Maharashtra state is starting to overwhelm hospitals and slums.

About a third of India’s more than 78,000 confirmed virus cases, and nearly 40% of its roughly 2,500 deaths, have been reported in Maharashtra, the coastal state in the center of the country that is home to Bollywood, a huge agriculture industry and India’s largest stock market. The Sensex has sunk about 25% from its yearto-date high in January.

Health experts have praised Modi’s government for enforcing a stringent weekslong lockdown that has helped the nation of 1.3 billion so far avoid the kind of catastrophic rates of illness and death that have beset the United States, Britain and elsewhere. But as India’s lockdown restrictions are eased, whether the country can steer its economy back on track will depend largely on how Maharashtra rebounds, experts say.

“It’s a huge impact,” Gurcharan Das, the former head of Procter & Gamble in India, said of the state. “I think the default position should be to open, and you only lock down by exception, because eventually I fear that the cost of the lockdown will be far greater in lives even than the disease.”

India’s lockdown, imposed March 25, is set to at least partially end Monday. Some restrictions on manufacturing, agriculture and self-employment were lifted May 4 to ease the burden on the poor and informal sector workers who comprise the majority of India’s workforce.

Indian Railways also partially reopened to run special trains carrying migrant workers stranded in the lockdown who fled India’s big cities, including Mumbai, for their village homes. At least some of the passengers carried the coronavirus with them, infection spikes in the states of Bihar and Orisha corresponding with their arrival show.

In an address Tuesday night, Modi said the government would spend more than $260 billion to revive the economy. The government described some details of the package, including income tax cuts, liquidity injections for cashstrapped companies and government-backed bank loans. It also said it would bar foreign companies from competing in bidding for government contracts of up to $26 million, in a nod to the self-reliance and protectionist policies outlined in Modi’s address.

Ritu Dewan, vice president of the Indian Society of Labor Economics in New Delhi, said the government should do more to address the needs of India’s poor.

“People are out of money, what about them? Where will they go? People need cash at this moment,” she said.