Three books that ask the right questions
Recently, a lot of network television is originating from the homes of the presenters. I have really enjoyed getting a glimpse at their bookshelves to see what they’ve been reading (or what they want us to believe they’ve been reading).
Spending more time at home over the past few weeks has sent me back to my own bookshelf. Trying to make sense of the current state of the world has led me to reread (at least in part) everyone from Evelyn Waugh to Carl von Clausewitz, John Keegan to Thomas Merton, but there are three books that have really brought our current challenges into focus for me.
The first is a classic among science nerds, Rats, Lice, and History by Hans Zinsser. It was published in 1935; I first read it over 40 years ago when I was a zoology major at Arkansas State.
Recently many conversations, both public and private, have been dominated by topics such as “return to normal,” “the new normal,” and “back to business as usual.” Zinsser reminds us that more than once in human history, pandemic diseases have led not just to changes in business models and travel patterns but to the downfall of empires. People may doubt that a disease can change a powerful country in any substantial way, but pandemics have the potential to change the course of history.
How likely is it that covid-19 will alter the course of history and lead to an end of the current world order? Not very, which puts the current pandemic squarely in the realm of the low probability, high impact event that every presidential administration tries to prepare for. A notable recent example is former vice president Dick Cheney’s contention that while it is highly unlikely a terrorist group would ever be able acquire a nuclear weapon, the impact of such an event is so high that we must be prepared to address it.
That brings me to the second book on my list, The Fifth Risk by
Michael Lewis. This is a 2018 book that is mainly concerned with the less than smooth transition between the Obama and Trump administrations between election day 2016 and inauguration day 2017. It is certainly an entertaining read if you like political gossip, but there are some valuable nuggets if you are willing to look beyond the anecdotes.
Lewis’ book is really based on two things: 1. It is the job of the federal government to manage the risks that face its citizens.
2. The vast majority of the federal government’s functions, the things we elect presidents to manage, are not ideological.
Air traffic control is not a Republican or Democrat issue. Meat inspection is good for everyone, left wing or right wing. The security of nuclear weapons and the functions of the weather bureau are neither liberal nor conservative.
Ironically, one of the sources of our current political impasse is the desire to make every issue a political issue, and the politicization of a public health issue may be the biggest risk we face from covid-19. Rather than do their jobs and “manage the risk,” political figures on both sides of the divide are seeking short-term political advantage over long-term solutions. How did we reach the point where every action, from wearing (or not wearing) a mask to going to the beach (or staying home), is seen as a political statement? Are we stupid, have we been manipulated, or are we just human?
The third book on my list addresses just that. In The True Believer, Eric Hoffer’s subject is the nature of mass movements and why humans have a deep need for their actions, even mundane everyday actions, to have an importance to some group or idea bigger than themselves. Some of Hoffer’s descriptions of general dissatisfaction in the population and the nature of disruptive political leadership could have been written in the last year.
The book was published in 1951; I first read it when I was an undergrad in the 1970s. Regardless of where you fall on the political spectrum, it contains insights that will help you understand both your actions and those of people with whom you disagree. One indication of its near universal utility is the fact that both Dwight Eisenhower and Hillary Clinton considered it required reading for members of their staffs.
These are the kinds of books I believe we should be reading—not books of answers, but books that help us frame our questions. I sincerely hope that our political leaders and media pundits are reading these books, or books like them, because if we don’t ask the right questions, it is unlikely we will arrive at the right answers.
David Abell is retired Senior Foreign Officer with 32 years’ service with the U.S. Department of State. He holds a BS in zoology from Arkansas State University, and an MS in national security strategy from the National War College.