Break out calculator

So, Gordon Swaim, instead of critiquing the Democratic candidates, let’s do a little arithmetic for your hero.

In 2016, Mr. Trump got about 60 million votes. They came from basically three sources. One was his true fans who were with him from the beginning. Based on early 2016 nominating-process returns, that was somewhere around

10-15 percent of Republicans overall. Second was the group who vote Republican regardless.

That was a very large fraction of his total 2016 vote count. This group included some folks who didn’t think much of Trump but he was the Republican candidate so they held their collective noses and voted for him anyway. The third group was the I-Hate-Hillary folks who voted for Trump because they couldn’t accept her being president.

For 2020 the calculus has changed. Many of the always-Republican group have become full-throated Trumpies, but that doesn’t add to his vote total. It just recategorizes some folks. The nose-holder group are now thinking, “What have I done?” Many will be votes lost to Trump and going to Biden. This year Hillary is gone and with her nearly all the anti-Hillary votes that Trump got last time. And of course we mustn’t forget that four years of epic incompetence and lies might influence some voters as well.

Trump’s behavior has certainly stoked his believers, but it’s doubtful he’s made many converts to his side. When we add up all the pluses (almost zero) and the minuses (nose-holders and anti-Hillarys), the prognosis for Trump is significantly fewer than 60 million votes. It’s hard to imagine a 10 million-plus popular-vote shortfall equating to an electoral college victory. I think, Gordon, that whatever shortcomings you see in Biden/Harris won’t bring enough new votes to Trump to make the difference. Nor will accusations of voter fraud.

Tata, DT. DENNIS BARRY

Little Rock