Redistricting at stake in election

Party in charge draws state maps on U.S., state representation

HOUSTON, Texas — In most states, Tuesday’s election is the last one before U.S. House and state legislative districts must be redrawn to balance the number of residents based on the 2020 census.

Voters are electing more than 5,000 state lawmakers in 35 states who will play a significant role in crafting or passing new maps for Congress or state legislative districts. Voters also are electing governors in eight states who could enact or veto those maps.

And they are deciding ballot measures in three states — Missouri, New Jersey and Virginia — that could change the process or timing for redrawing districts.

Not long ago, Berta Patterson’s corner of Houston was as symbolically red as they come.

Up the road is the Harris County GOP headquarters. In the other direction are the old ninth floor offices of the late former Republican President George H.W. Bush. Roughly in between is Trini Mendenhall Community Center, where Patterson cast her ballot this month — for all Democratic candidates. Two years ago, the party fell just 47 votes shy of ousting the district’s longtime Republican state representative.

“Republicans, Republicans, Republicans,” said Patterson, 63, recalling the only political yard signs she used to see in the neighborhood. “I have seen the change.”

The district now is a battleground for control of the Texas House and is part of an intense national fight for political power in state legislatures. The outcomes could shape the way voting districts are redrawn for Congress for the next decade.

“There is no exaggeration here, the Texas state House is the key to future power in America. It’s the crown jewel of redistricting,” said Vicky Hausman, co-founder of Forward Majority, a Democratic organization that is targeting key Republican-led Legislatures in Tuesday’s elections.

Though a growing number of states have entrusted redistricting to independent commissions, the responsibility in a majority of states still rests with state lawmakers whose work is subject to gubernatorial approval. Parties that control the process can draw maps to their advantage, a tactic known as gerrymandering.

Democrats are especially motivated this year because Republicans generally trounced them during the last round of redistricting. After posting big wins in the 2010 state elections, Republicans used their enlarged majorities in some states to draw favorable maps. Democrats forced some of those maps to be redrawn through successful court challenges, but others have remained in place for the full decade.

A variety of Democratic groups, including one aided by former President Barack Obama and former Attorney General Eric Holder, are collectively pouring tens of millions of dollars into state legislative races. Holder’s group has given money to 261 state legislative candidates who could influence redistricting in 11 states.

Democrats are being countered financially by the Republican State Leadership Committee, which also coordinated the GOP’s successful effort a decade ago.

According to the Republican committee, the outcome of as few as 42 state legislative races in 10 states could determine control of as many as 136 seats in Congress, when accounting for the potential swing from the most Republican-leaning maps to the most Democratic-tilted districts that could be drawn by the victors.

“The margins are extremely tight, and the stakes are extremely high, and it’s going to determine what this country looks like for at least the next decade, possibly two,” said Republican State Leadership Committee President Austin Chambers.