Something’s not working

With covid-19 cases growing exponentially, Los Angeles County public health officials have ordered the suspension of outdoor dining at restaurants for three weeks. It’s the latest escalation of business restrictions stemming from this surge, and with cases hitting a new high Monday—6,124—it will likely not be the last.

The temporary shutdown seems logical in the face of the increasingly dangerous circumstances. Infections are spread by people mixing with others. Anything that authorities can do to reasonably limit the nonessential activities that bring people and their possible contagions together, they should do.

But this new order gives us pause. Not because public health officials are wrong to shut down locations where people get together without protective face coverings or because restaurants have invested thousands to build outdoor dining areas (an investment that we think will pay off for years to come in temperate Los Angeles). No, it’s human nature that has us concerned.

Private social gatherings have been one of the most significant sources of spread since the beginning of the pandemic. Despite the risk engendered and the endless appeals by public officials to cut it out, people keep socializing in unsafe ways.

This is not an idle worry, but one based on frustrating experience. Public health officials had pinned previous covid-19 surges to social gatherings during holiday weekends, celebrations and sports events. And that was in the warmer months. With chillier evenings, those gatherings are going to move inside.

We’ve consistently supported a scientific, data-driven approach to pandemic responses that identifies sources of infection spread. And the science says that infections spread much better indoors, where air doesn’t circulate as well. Meanwhile, there’s little data showing that outdoor dining is a major source of infection.

LA County businesses have been subjected to multiple clampdowns— closing, reopening and modifying, now closing again—and yet it has not stopped covid-19 from spreading. Something is not working, and it may well be due to what’s happening behind closed doors. Let’s not give the public more reason to gather there.