CDC gives grim forecast on spread of virus variant

Federal health officials warned Friday of the possibility that a far more contagious variant of the coronavirus first identified in Britain will become the dominant source of infection in the United States by March, and would likely lead to a wrenching surge in cases and deaths that would further burden overwhelmed hospitals.

This dire forecast from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention made plain what has been suspected for weeks now: The nation is in an urgent race to vaccinate as many Americans as possible before the variant spreads across the country.

Public health officials emphasized that protective measures already in place should work against the new variant, and urged Americans to redouble their vigilance in wearing face masks, in maintaining physical distance outside their households, washing hands frequently and limiting social interactions and indoor gatherings.

The variant is not known to be more deadly or to cause more severe disease. But the worrisome warning — hedged by limited data about just how prevalent the variant has become — landed at the end of a week when the nation’s nascent vaccination campaign appeared to be scattershot and still elusive for most Americans. It was hampered by confusion over eligibility for people beyond front-line health workers, miscommunication over limited supplies as demand grew and by bungled rollouts from state to state.

The CDC’s projections could also prove extremely troubling for hospitals and nursing homes, many of which are already operating at or near capacity. Medical centers and nursing homes have faced increasing rates of infection among their staffs, causing shortages and leading to increased patient loads that have at times jeopardized patient care.

“I want to stress that we are deeply concerned that this strain is more transmissible and can accelerate outbreaks in the U.S. in the coming weeks,” said Dr. Jay Butler, deputy director for infectious diseases at the CDC.

Privately, one CDC official said the prospect of the new variant’s prowess was “chilling,” and underscored the urgent need for people to follow precautions. A bulletin released by the agency conveyed the sense of urgency. “More spread, more cases, more deaths,” it warned.