And now, the poll drop
Nearly as disturbing as the seditious attack on the Capitol is the ongoing support for President Donald Trump from most Republicans. But there is good news from a Pew Research Center survey that suggests Trump is losing ground with his own party.
We should certainly view polling with a grain of salt, at least when it involves Trump. But the shift in attitudes about Trump over time in the same poll suggests something is going on.
“Donald Trump is leaving the White House with the lowest job approval of his presidency (29 percent) and increasingly negative ratings for his post-election conduct,” Pew reports. “The share of voters who rate Trump’s conduct since the election as only fair or poor has risen from 68 percent in November to 76 percent, with virtually all of the increase coming in his ‘poor’ ratings (62 percent now, 54 percent then).”
If you are rooting for Republicans to come to their senses, the news gets even better: “The share of his supporters who describe his conduct as poor has doubled over the past two months, from 10 percent to 20 percent.”
Unlike the vast number of Republicans in the House, Republican voters show signs of weariness with Trump. Only 29 percent of them “endorse Trump’s post-election conduct, hold him blameless for the riot, believe he is the election’s rightful winner and want him to have a major role in politics going forward.”
That segment of true believers is only slightly larger than the 25 percent who believe none of these things. The remaining 46 percent agree with only some of these views.
It is not a foregone conclusion that Trump’s grip on the GOP will continue. “A 57 percent majority of all Republicans and Republican-leaning independents want Trump to remain a major figure, while 40 percent do not,” Pew reports. That varies among conservatives (two-thirds of whom want to see him continue), whereas 41 percent of liberal and moderate Republicans say the same.
To be sure, most Republicans have not yet turned on Trump. It is no longer certain, however, that he will continue to command their attention.
There is also some sign that President-elect Joe Biden might have a solid base of support, at least at the start of his term: “58 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden has done in explaining his plans and policies.” A nearly identical percentage approve of his Cabinet choices.
The country remains deeply divided by partisan identity. A shocking number of Republicans remain under Trump’s spell. Nevertheless, we can see that in the aftermath of his egregious behavior, the ties that bind him to a solid, undifferentiated mass of Republicans have begun to fray.
Biden, Democrats and progressives in civil society should celebrate and elevate constructive Republicans (a small group in Congress), incentivize wishy-washy conservatives to adhere to democratic (small “d”) values, and show that those who refuse to operate in the real world and fail to support democratic values will find themselves marginalized.