90,000 deaths forecast by March
White House virus briefings begin with grim prediction
WASHINGTON — The Biden administration opened its new health briefings Wednesday with a projection that as many as 90,000 more people in the U.S. will die from the coronavirus in the next four weeks — a sobering warning as the government strains to improve delivery and injection of vaccines.
The tone of the hourlong briefing was in line with President Joe Biden’s promise to be straight with the nation about the state of the outbreak that already has claimed more than 428,000 U.S. lives.
The deaths projection wasn’t much different from what Biden himself has said,
but nonetheless served as a stark reminder of the brutal road ahead.
“I know this is not news we all want to hear, but this is something we must say so we are all aware,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the new director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “If we are united in action, we can turn things around.”
The briefings, set for three times a week, are part of Biden’s attempt to rebuild trust and mobilize Americans to follow health guidance on the coronavirus and to break down public resistance to the vaccine.
Wednesday’s briefing was conducted virtually, with no shortage of technical glitches and audio gaps. Administration officials appeared on Zoom from different sites, in keeping with the Biden administration’s efforts to model best practices for safe work habits in the pandemic.
Officials laid out the administration’s efforts to contain the virus, speed vaccinations and bring Americans along with the effort.
“The White House respects and will follow the science, and the scientists will speak independently,” said Andy Slavitt, a senior administration adviser on the pandemic.
Jeff Zients, the White House coronavirus coordinator, said the Biden administration was examining additional ways of speeding vaccine production, a day after the president announced the U.S. plans to provide states with enough doses for 300 million Americans by the end of summer.
Zients also touched on efforts to improve administering the jabs.
“Most states are getting better at putting needles in arms,” Zients said. He called on Congress to swiftly pass Biden’s “American Rescue Plan.” The $1.9 trillion bill includes $400 billion for measures aimed at controlling the virus, including dramatically increasing the pace of vaccination and ensuring more widespread testing.
Zients noted that the federal Department of Health and Human Services acted Wednesday to make more people available to administer vaccinations. The government will authorize retired nurses and doctors, and professionals licensed in one state will be able to give shots in other states.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease expert, said there was reason to be concerned about the impact of some coronavirus mutations on vaccines, but he also said scientists have plenty of options for adjustments to maintain effectiveness.
Fauci said there was particular concern about the socalled South African variant, because lab tests have shown it can diminish the protective power of the vaccines approved to date. He stressed that the level of protection provided was still well within what he called the “cushion” of vaccine effectiveness, but added that the government was working with pharmaceutical companies on potential “booster” shots for the new variants.
Walensky said her agency’s latest forecast indicates the U.S. will reach between 479,000 and 514,000 deaths by Feb. 20.
Dr. David Hamer, a professor of global health and med- icine at Boston University’s School of Public Health, said having briefings from health officials that are “based on serious science” would go a long way toward improving public perceptions of the vac- cine.
“There’s a certain amount of vaccine hesitancy, and so educating people about the vaccine, how it works, how safe it is and how it can protect against the disease but also slow transmission is really important,” he said.
EASING UP
Meanwhile, some states are loosening their coronavirus restrictions on restaurants and other businesses because of improved infection and hospitalization numbers but are moving gradually and cautiously, in part because of the more contagious variant taking hold in the U.S.
While the easing could cause case rates to rise, health experts say it can work if done in a measured way and if the public remains vigilant about masks and social distancing.
“If the frequency goes up, you tighten it up. If the frequency goes down, you loosen up. Getting it just right is almost impossible,” said Dr. Arnold Monto, a public health professor at the University of Michigan. “There’s no perfect way to do this.”
As Michigan’s coronavirus rate dropped to the nation’s fifth-lowest over the past two weeks, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said bars and restaurants can welcome indoor customers next week for the first time in 2½ months. But they will be under a 10 p.m. curfew and will be limited to 25% of capacity, or half of what was allowed the last time she loosened their restrictions, in June.
The state previously authorized the resumption of in-person classes at high schools and the partial reopening of movie theaters.
“We’re in a stronger position because we’ve taken this pause,” Whitmer said. “But we are also very mindful of the fact that this variant is now here in Michigan. It poses a real threat.”
The covid-19 death toll in the U.S. has climbed past 428,000, with the number of dead running at close to alltime highs at nearly 3,350 a day on average.
But newly confirmed cases have dropped over the past two weeks from an average of about 248,000 per day to around 166,000. And the number of people in hospitals with covid-19 has fallen by tens of thousands to 109,000.
At the same time, health experts have warned that the more contagious and possibly more lethal variant sweeping Britain will probably become the dominant source of infection in the U.S. by March. It has been reported in over 20 states.
Other mutant versions are circulating in South Africa and Brazil. The Brazil variant has been detected for the first time in the U.S., in Minnesota.
Chicago and surrounding suburbs allowed indoor dining over the weekend for the first time since October. Major cultural attractions including the Field Museum and Shedd Aquarium reopened with crowd limits.
Washington, D.C., also recently ended its monthlong ban on indoor dining, but one in New York City remains in effect.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom this week lifted stayat-home orders he imposed last month when hospitals were so overwhelmed with virus patients that they were on the verge of rationing lifesaving care. Restaurants and places of worship will be able to operate outdoors, and many stores will be able to have more shoppers inside.
In Oregon, Gov. Kate Brown announced that some indoor operations such as gyms and movie theaters can reopen Friday with limited capacity. Indoor dining is still banned in the hardest-hit counties.
Not all places are taking as cautious an approach.
After North Dakota dropped to the nation’s second-lowest case rate, Republican Gov. Doug Burgum this month not only relaxed limits on the number of people who can gather at restaurants and bars but also allowed a statewide mask mandate to expire last week.
“The fight is far from over, but we can certainly see the light of the end of the tunnel from here,” Burgum said.
Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, vice dean for public health practice and community engagement at Johns Hopkins University and Maryland’s former health department chief, cautioned such a step can carry heavy risk.
“I don’t think it’s unreasonable to start to reopen, but if people think that’s the green light to pretend the virus doesn’t exist, then we’re going to be right back to where we were,” Sharfstein said. “If you do restrictions, the virus goes down. You can open up and see how it goes. But if the variants really take hold, that may not be so easy.”
Many restaurants say they cannot survive offering only takeout during the winter, when the cold makes it difficult if not impossible to offer outdoor dining.
Rick Bayless, one of the most decorated chefs in the U.S., said allowing indoor dining at his Mexican restaurants in Chicago may buy him some time.
“With 25% indoor we might be able to make it to the spring, when people will want to go outdoors,” he said.
Bayless said the business survived a previous shutdown only because his landlord allowed him to stay rent-free for three months. The uncertainty has taken a toll on his workers, he said.
“It’s been touch-and-go. When they allowed us to open up on Saturday, we had staff in here that were literally in tears,” Bayless said.
TRANSPARENCY IN GEORGIA
In Georgia, the Department of Public Health has refused to say which cities or counties have had people infected by the new variant first found in Britain, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported. Georgia has now identified at least six cases of a covid-19 variant in the state, raising the urgency to get people vaccinated, the newspaper reported.
The state’s health department contends that revealing where it’s been found could lead to discovery of the names of patients, violating their privacy. Several other states, however, are identifying counties or cities where variant cases have been detected.
“It is more than likely that this variant and others are circulating in Georgia just as they are across the country,” public health department spokeswoman Nancy Nydam told the newspaper in an email.
Government transparency advocates say the agency is misusing privacy laws to withhold vital health information. It would be impossible to identify a specific covid-19 patient based on a city or county alone, they say.
“I think that they are wary of too much public scrutiny on how well they are responding,” said Joe Larsen, a lawyer with the Freedom of Information Foundation of Texas.
The Texas foundation faced a similar argument when a state commission refused to release the names of nursing home facilities with confirmed covid-19 cases. The state attorney general ultimately ruled that the information should be released.