California governor’s hold on office said to grow shaky
LOS ANGELES — Not long ago, the notion that California Gov. Gavin Newsom could be ousted by voters in the heavily Democratic state that elected him in a landslide two years ago would have appeared farcical. But the slippery politics of the pandemic and a tangle of confounding decisions on vaccines and reopening businesses and schools have conspired to make the first-term Democrat look vulnerable.
Newsom’s popularity is tumbling, and a proposed recall election appears on track to qualify for the ballot.
A recall in the nation’s most populous state would become a marquee contest with national implications, watched closely as a barometer of the public mood heading toward the 2022 elections, when a closely divided Congress again will be in play.
California voters weary of restrictions that have cut them off from jobs, classrooms and friends, combined with anxiety from the continuing threat of the coronavirus, could create a volatile mix at the ballot box. Newsom also has weathered a public drubbing for dining out with friends and lobbyists at a San Francisco Bay Area restaurant last fall, while telling residents to stay home.
More recently, an ever-expanding fraud scandal at the state unemployment agency has his leadership during the pandemic under even closer scrutiny.
“When you have a very angry, frustrated electorate, they are being driven by emotion, not facts,” said pollster Ben Tulchin, who worked for former Democratic Gov. Gray Davis when he was ousted in a 2003 recall election and replaced by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Former President Donald “Trump got elected because voters were angry,” Tulchin said. “Gavin [Newsom] needs to take this extremely seriously. There are enough people who are undecided, who are up for grabs. Voters are split on him.”
Newsom is losing ground with key voter groups. Independents now make up about 1 in 4 registrations in the state, a number roughly equal to Republicans. Young people lean progressive but are less likely than their parents to adhere to traditional party loyalties.
Beyond the turbulent electorate, a fellow Democrat could enter the contest and provide party voters with an alternative. That’s what happened to Davis in 2003 when Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante joined the race and siphoned off support.
Republicans haven’t won a statewide race in heavily Democratic California since 2006, but the party senses shifting ground. Candidates already are lining up.
California has become “the land of broken promises,” former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer said last week when he formally launched his campaign and urged the state to reopen schools immediately.
Newsom’s 2018 rival, businessman John Cox, has said he’ll be a candidate if the recall qualifies, and former GOP Congressman Doug Ose also might get in.
Recall organizers have until March 15 to get the 1.5 million petition signatures needed to get on the ballot. They say they have 1.4 million in-hand, though the tally has yet to be fully verified by election officials. If it qualifies, then an election likely would occur in late summer or fall.
Voters would be presented with two questions: Should Newsom be recalled, and who should replace him? If voters say yes to the recall, then whoever among the listed candidates gets the most votes becomes the next governor.
On paper, the odds favor Newsom. Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2-to-1, hold every statewide office and dominate the Legislature and congressional delegation.
Still, Faulconer argues that voters are eager for a change after years of Democratic rule. While his positions on social issues and the environment square with many voters — he was elected twice in a Democratic-leaning city — “The bad news is that he is not Arnold Schwarzenegger,” who entered the race with worldwide celebrity, said Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who was a speechwriter for former GOP Gov. Pete Wilson.
Perhaps Newsom’s greatest ally is time. With a potential election still months away, it’s possible that a combination of sharply declining virus cases and widespread vaccinations will lead to California being largely reopened.
But if pandemic problems don’t turn around, then Newsom “could be in real trouble,” Whalen said.