Time’s running out for bubble teams
It’s always a good idea for an NCAA Tournament at-large candidate to have some notable victories to hang its hat on. A boatload of wins is nice, but quality victories usually rule the day with the tournament selection committee.
Wichita State (13-4) held a fairly forgettable profile until Thursday. The Shockers had done nothing wrong but also nothing remarkable. Their best performance was a Jan. 2 victory at Mississippi, a result that’s grown in value this month.
Then came a 68-63 victory over No. 6 Houston, and Wichita State finds itself squarely in the NCAA Tournament conversation.
There are other teams like the Shockers. Some are from just outside the power conferences, in the American, Atlantic 10 and Mountain West, with limited opportunities to significantly improve their at-large chances. Others are in power leagues and need to get working soon.
And time’s ticking. Selection Sunday is barely three weeks away.
SAN DIEGO STATE (16-4)
The No. 25 Aztecs are in better shape than anyone else included in this discussion, and they’ve won seven in a row since getting swept by Utah State. They’re more of a metrics darling than any of the other Mountain West at-large contenders (Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State) and might be able to get away with not having a Quadrant 1 triumph. They’d be wise not to give away too many games down the stretch.
VA. COMMONWEALTH (16-4)
Another team on a winning streak, the Rams have taken six in a row and close out the month against George Mason, Saint Louis and Davidson. The latter two games could be of some value, and piling up Quadrant 2 will help.
SAINT LOUIS (11-3)
The Billikens have a fine nonconference triumph (LSU) but sputtered after losing nearly all of January to a covid pause. They had won four in a row before a loss Friday at Dayton. And they have a critical week against VCU and Richmond up next. Travis Ford’s bunch will be difficult to fully evaluate, but they’d be well-served picking off at least one of those two teams.
LOUISVILLE (11-4)
It’s hard for a team with modest high-end accomplishments to be viewed as favorably as the Cardinals. They did top Virginia Tech, Seton Hall and Duke (all at home), and the 7-0 mark against Quadrant 2 is a welcome sight.
SYRACUSE (12-6)
Syracuse has one victory over a likely at-large team (Virginia Tech at home), plus a couple more against serious one-bid league contenders (Bryant and Northeastern). That … isn’t going to get it done.
NORTH CAROLINA (13-7)
A closing stretch against Louisville, No. 16 Florida State, Syracuse and Duke provides opportunities. Nonetheless, the Tar Heels’ hand isn’t especially strong; its most notable triumphs came at Duke, against Pac-12 bubbler Stanford on a neutral floor and at home against Syracuse.
SMU (11-4)
The Mustangs can’t follow the Wichita State path to at-large contention because they’ve already been swept by Houston (though a conference tournament meeting is possible). But they do get two games against the Shockers before the end of the month … assuming they actually play those games. SMU, which won at Dayton and split with Memphis for its most notable victories, hasn’t played since Feb. 8 because of a pause.
MEMPHIS (12-6)
Unlike SMU, the Tigers can adopt the Wichita State playbook, as they close the regular season at home against Houston. That doesn’t solve another problem: A lack of consequential success away from home. Memphis’ best outcomes are home defeats of SMU and Wichita State and a neutral-site romp over Saint Mary’s.