Herd immunity impossible?

Since the beginning of the pandemic, we have collectively focused on that point in the future when so many people have been inoculated or have obtained natural immunity, normal life could resume and this painful period would dissolve into the mists of history.

But it seems that this magical moment in which the U.S. hits “herd immunity” and covid-19 is stopped dead in its tracks isn’t likely to happen soon, if ever.

Top health experts now say that due to a combination of waning demand for vaccines, uneven vaccination levels across the country and the spread of more contagious strains, the U.S. may have to live with covid-19 for the foreseeable future. It’s not terribly surprising news, given the politicization of the fight against the pandemic, but it’s disappointing. And it should spur leaders in government, commerce and the community to do more to rekindle the public’s interest in getting inoculated.

More than half of adults in the U.S. have received at least one dose, and about 40 percent are fully vaccinated. But demand for both first and second shots is dropping and could hit a wall soon. Kids under 16 still aren’t eligible for inoculation (although those between the ages of 12 and 15 may soon qualify), and somewhere between one-fifth and one-quarter of American adults are reluctant to get a shot at the moment. With so many Americans unwilling to put aside their irrational fears or mistrust of government and get a jab, it’s hard to see the U.S. ever reaching a point where covid-19 is as rare as bubonic plague. But while the U.S. may not be able to eliminate covid-19, it can reduce the threat to manageable levels.

In fact, some places have already done that. Israel has inoculated only about 60 percent of its population, but with continued restrictions on activities, it is keeping new infections extremely low. California seems to be moving in that direction too, because of some of the highest vaccine acceptance rates of any state along with pandemic measures so strict they sparked a political revolt.

But California isn’t an island; it’s only as safe as the rest of the world.

If covid-19 is here for the long term, then vaccinations will be the most important tool we have to reduce sickness and death.

Vaccine mandates in workplaces and private businesses can help, too. The government doesn’t require that people get vaccinated—and technically, it can’t as long as the vaccines have only emergency use authorizations—but it can make it desirable to do so.

“Herd immunity” may be the gold standard for fighting dangerous infectious diseases, but it may not be in the cards for covid-19. We need to roll up our sleeves and deal with it.