Delta’s dangers
Return to office normal? Folly
With vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant dropping to 39 percent in some areas, it is absurd to pursue a return to normal in the office. Make no mistake about the danger: The Delta surge is forecast to grow much worse in the next few months. Indeed, the CDC is asking vaccinated people to wear masks and moving toward recommending booster shots.
Yet many companies are forcing employees who successfully worked from home during the height of the pandemic to return to the office.
Over a third have already returned and most of the rest are to return by the end of summer or early-mid fall, as the schools reopen and Delta cases will soar.
Why are these companies putting the health of their employees at serious risk? And why are they practically guaranteeing mass employee flight as part of the Great Resignation prompted by pressure to return to the office?
Many have already quit due to employer plans to force them back to the office. Fears over the Delta surge will undoubtedly prompt even more to quit rather than risk their health due to breakthrough infections.
The reason that so many large employers fail to listen to the concerns of employees, whether about their work preferences or their health, stems from the wishful thinking of dangerous judgment errors called cognitive biases. These mental blind spots lead to poor strategic and financial decision-making when evaluating options. They cause leaders to go with their gut and follow their personal preferences instead of relying on best practices on returning to the office.
The biggest threat in underestimating the Delta surge comes from the normalcy bias. This dangerous judgment error leads us to underestimate the likelihood and impact of disruptive events.
Consider that we already had clear evidence of U.S. covid cases caused by Delta beginning to surge in early June. We also had clear evidence already in May of a Delta-caused explosion of cases in countries with higher rates of vaccination than in the U.S., such as the U.K. and Israel.
Big employers pride themselves on making data-driven decisions. They had the data; it was right under their noses. And they didn’t have the excuse of not knowing about the danger of an explosive growth in covid cases. Yet despite the clear and present danger of Delta, they insisted on forcing their employees back to the office.
Fortunately, a small number of organizations are showing the courage to revise their plans. Yet many of these revisions are Band-Aids rather than true pivots.
Apple, for instance, delayed the return to the office from September to October. Yet this one-month delay shows that Apple just doesn’t get it. Not only is the Delta variant forecast to peak in October, but there’s a bigger issue at hand.
Apple and the other large employers forcing employees back to the office need to face the reality that vaccine immunity wanes in a few months. At the same time, new variants are emerging, such as Delta Plus, which might be even worse than the Delta variant.
Delta is a short-term issue with a long-term tail of multiple similar scenarios. Not facing this patently obvious unpleasant reality stems from a cognitive bias scholars call the ostrich effect, after the mythical notion that ostriches bury their heads in the sand when facing danger. Research suggests that denying negative reality is a top cause of CEOs getting fired, cited by 23 percent of members of boards of directors that terminated their CEOs.
Overcoming normalcy bias, planning fallacy, and the ostrich effect in the return to the office requires relying on research-based best practices. That means a mainly hybrid model of a day or two in the office for most employees, who should be able to move easily to full-time remote work when needed. A substantial minority of employees should work full-time remotely, if they wish to do so and demonstrate effectiveness.
This best-practice setup maximizes the benefits of in-office collaboration for those employees who benefit from it most, while retaining top talent that would leave if not permitted full-time remote work, and creates a company culture, systems, and processes that facilitate full-time remote work when needed for all employees.
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky is a behavioral scientist, CEO of the future-proofing consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts, and author of “Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams: A Manual on Benchmarking to Best Practices for Competitive Advantage.” He lived in Little Rock for a year while on a research fellowship.