Britain enjoying post-covid phase
U.K. seen to balance cases, infection rates with ‘normal’ life
LONDON — At a time when Britain is reporting more than 30,000 new coronavirus cases a day, hospitals are coming under renewed strain and preliminary data shows that vaccine effectiveness declines, the British public is making the most of their recently declared freedom from lockdowns.
Nearly 60,000 soccer fans packed London’s Emirates Stadium last Sunday to watch Chelsea outplay Arsenal. Andrew Lloyd Webber’s musical “Cinderella” made its glittering debut in the West End after pandemic-related delays. On the subway, where masks are still mandatory, half of the riders go barefaced.
Such is the strange new phase of Britain’s pandemic: The public has moved on, even if the virus has not. Given that Britain has been at the vanguard of so many previous coronavirus developments — from incubating variants to rolling out vaccines — experts say this could be a glimpse into the future for other countries.
“We don’t seem to care that we have these really high infection rates,” said Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London who has been leading a major study of covid-19 symptoms. “It looks like we’re just accepting it now — that this is the price of freedom.”
Some of that equanimity may stem from the fact that Britain’s case rate, while high, has not yet risen anywhere near the level that government officials predicted when they lifted virtually all restrictions last month. Some may be because so many Britons are vaccinated, fewer serious cases are being reported. And some of it may simply reflect fatigue, after 17 months of baleful headlines and stifling lockdowns.
“There’s a feeling that finally we can breathe; we can start trying to get back what we’ve lost,” said Devi Sridhar, head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh. “It’s really difficult to ask people not to mix for a prolonged period, especially if there is no solution.”
With nearly 80% of the adult population fully vaccinated and the virus still circulating widely, Sridhar said, Britain may be a model for other countries of “whether you can manage covid in a sustainable way.” The evidence, she added, was inconclusive because Britain still faces critical challenges, like the reopening of schools Wednesday.
That will almost certainly drive rates up further, particularly because Britain has resisted vaccinating children and younger teenagers. But epidemiologists are loath to make specific predictions because many were proved wrong in July when cases fell immediately after “Freedom Day,” when most restrictions were lifted.
New cases, in any event, are a less all-important metric than they once were, given that a much smaller percentage of those infected end up in the hospital than in the earlier stages of the pandemic. Almost 970 people were admitted to hospitals Aug. 24, the most recent date for which data is available. That compares with 4,583 on Jan. 12, the peak of the last wave of infections.
Hospitalizations are rising, however, as is the fatality rate. Admissions last week were up 7.7% over the previous seven-day period, while deaths were up 9.9%, totaling 100 people Friday. With a backlog of patients with other illnesses, doctors say the National Health Service has little slack to cope with another influx of covid-19 victims.
“We’ve found rising numbers of cases, and we are under a lot of pressure again,” said Susan Jain, a specialist in anesthesia and intensive therapy who works in the intensive care unit at the Homerton University Hospital in East London. “All our covid cases are unvaccinated by choice.”
The government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, preoccupied with the chaotic military withdrawal from Afghanistan, has said little about the rising hospital numbers — or indeed about the pandemic at all — in recent weeks.
Relieved that the more gloomy predictions of spiraling cases have not materialized, the government argues that its strategy has been vindicated.
The government’s policy on vaccinating younger teenagers is in flux, with no decision yet on whether to go ahead with a campaign to jab those 12 to 15, though Britain’s medical regulator has authorized a vaccine for this age group.
At the same time, public observance of measures to contain the spread of the virus seems to be slipping, a factor that some epidemiologists said accounted for Britain having a higher case rate than countries like France and Spain, where infections are now falling.
“I do wear masks indoors in public places,” said Philip Crossley, 69, walking on a street in the northern city of Bradford. “I noticed a lot of people don’t. Maybe that’s not a big problem, but they still could carry the virus.”
Outside Downing Street, an anti-lockdown protester, Simon Parry, said he had never worn a mask on public transportation and had yet to be challenged.
“I get people looking at me like I want to kill my grandmother,” he conceded before adding that he thought the argument was moving his way and that one woman had recently shed her face mask after an exchange on the subway.