British scientists look to restrictions to slow omicron growth
LONDON — The British government may need to introduce tougher restrictions to slow the growth of the omicron variant and prevent a new surge in covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths, British scientists said Saturday.
U.K. health officials say omicron is spreading much more quickly than the delta strain and is likely to replace it and become the dominant variant in Britain within days. The U.K. recorded 58,194 coronavirus cases on Friday, the highest number since January, though what portion were the omicron variant is unclear.
Concerns about the new variant led Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative government to reintroduce restrictions that were lifted almost six months ago. Masks must be worn in most indoor settings, vaccine certificates must be shown to enter nightclubs and people are being urged to work from home if possible.
Many scientists say that’s unlikely to be enough.
Modeling released Saturday by scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggested omicron is likely to cause a large wave of infections by January, and could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England in the next five months if no other measures are taken.
Scientists in South Africa, where omicron was first identified, say they see signs it may cause less severe disease than delta, but caution that it is too soon to be certain.
“In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home,” said Rosanna Barnard of the school’s Center for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. “However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the [health service] is not overwhelmed.”
The most pessimistic scenario foresees half a million people hospitalized with the virus by the end of April and says daily hospital admissions could be double the previous peak last January. The study by the scientists, who help advise the British government, has not been peer reviewed.
The number of infections will depend on how much the variant escapes protection from vaccines and how effective booster shots are at bolstering immunity, both of which remain unclear.
Johnson’s government says it is not considering tougher measures but aims to offer everyone 18 and over a booster shot of vaccine by the end of January.
The U.K. Health Security Agency said Friday that both the AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines appear less effective in preventing symptomatic infections in people exposed to omicron, though preliminary data show that effectiveness appears to rise to between 70% and 75% after a third vaccine dose.
Meanwhile, the authorities in France want to accelerate vaccinations against the coronavirus before Christmas as infections surge and more people with covid-19 seek medical attention.
FRANCE RULES OUT LOCKDOWN
French government on Monday closed nightclubs until Jan. 6 and tightened social distancing measures in closed spaces and outdoors. French Prime Minister Jean Castex said the government is not considering another lockdown that would limit or prohibit public events and social gatherings.
“People can celebrate Christmas normally, but we must respect the rules … and get vaccinated,” Castex told public radio outlet France Blue during an interview in the Alsace region late Friday.
With over 48 million of France’s 67 million people fully vaccinated and tens of thousands signing up for either their first shots or booster doses, the country could make it through the holiday season without additional restrictions on public life, the prime minister said.
Health workers in France administer 700,000 vaccine doses a day, Castex said, adding that 90% of French residents have had at least one vaccine dose.
“It’s an excellent figure,” he said.
The government is discussing whether to have France join other countries that have authorized vaccines for all children ages 5-11. Children under age 12 who are considered at risk of complications from covid-19 will be eligible starting Wednesday.
Castex, 56, tested positive for the coronavirus on Nov. 22. His office said at the time that he had contracted the virus from his 11-year-old daughter. He was fully vaccinated, but his daughter was too young to get jabbed.
Pointing to himself as an example, the prime minister said: “So, yes, vaccinating children is necessary.”
OUTBREAK POSTPONES BALLET
Italy’s La Scala has postponed its ballet season premiere after a coronavirus outbreak in its ranks, just days after the famed Milan theater staged its high-profile opera season opener with a full-capacity audience.
At least one of the four ballerinas who tested positive for covid-19 also appeared in the Dec. 7 premiere of the opera “Macbeth.”
Ten other people linked to the outbreak tested positive for the virus, all of them theater support personnel, including someone who worked in the hairdressing department, the theater said in a statement.
Italian health authorities placed a number of other people in quarantine because they were in close contact with those confirmed infected, La Scala said.
La Scala Theatre Ballet was scheduled to perform “La Bayadere” to open its season on Dec. 15. The performance has been pushed back until Dec. 21.
The 19th century ballet is based on a score by Ludwig Minkus and choreography that Rudolf Nureyev debuted with the Paris Opera ballet in 1992. La Scala’s performance of the ballet marks the first time the Nureyev Foundation has allowed another company to perform it.
The opening of La Scala’s opera season is considered a highlight of Italy’s cultural calendar and took on added glitter this year after the 2020 edition was televised due to the pandemic.
While the Dec. 7 performance officially launched La Scala’s opera season, the theater staged pre-season operas, ballets and other events for several months, one of the few European houses to resume regular, full-capacity performances.
Italy, like other countries in Europe, is seeing an increase in new coronavirus cases as cold weather sets in. The country reported 20,000 new cases Friday.
However, the latest wave so far is more contained in Italy than in other European nations, and the country’s daily death toll has generally stayed below 100 for months.
Officials credit 85% of Italy’s population over age 12 being fully vaccinated, as well as continued mask mandates and health pass requirements to access workplaces, restaurants, museums and theaters.
VARIANT REACHES TAIWAN
Taiwan has recorded its first case of the omicron variant in a passenger who recently
traveled to the southern African country of Eswatini, health officials said Saturday.
The passenger, a Taiwanese woman in her 30s who returned on Dec. 8, is now in quarantine in hospital, according to the Central Epidemic Command Center, which is in charge of the island’s pandemic response. Passengers who sat near her on the plane have tested negative so far.
Taiwan reported 10 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, all of which were identified in travelers entering from abroad.
The self-ruling island has a strict two-week quarantine on arrival and has sealed its borders off to all but residents and citizens with few exceptions. There is little community transmission within its borders of the disease and there has been few restrictions on movement internally in recent months. Mask wearing is nearly universal.
While the omicron variant is called a “variant of concern” by the World Health Organization, scientists are still working to determine how it may compare with the predominant delta variant in terms of transmissibility and severity.
Taiwan has reported 16,731 covid-19 cases in total and 848 deaths.