Zero not happening
For two years, China has boasted that its strict no-tolerance policy toward the pandemic was working, imposing draconian lockdowns that kept cases low. “Zero covid” became a watchword and was showcased by the Chinese government as a success story compared with chaotic responses and high death tolls in the United States and elsewhere. But now China is facing rapid spread of the omicron variant, and much is at stake for China’s leaders, its economy and its vulnerable people.
The latest sign of distress is in Shanghai, with a population of 25 million, China’s most populous city and key to its economy. With case counts rising into the thousands every day, the authorities announced a two-stage lockdown over nine days in an effort to test everyone and brake the spread. The first half of the lockdown, in the Pudong financial district east of the Huangpu River, took effect Monday, with residents confined to their homes as health-care workers fanned out to conduct tests. In the city’s west, people rushed to stockpile food, delivery services were overwhelmed, and supermarkets ran low on supplies. Offices and all businesses not considered essential are being closed and public transport suspended.
Overall, China recorded more than 56,000 cases from March 1 to 24, the most serious outbreak since the pandemic began more than two years ago. For many months, China’s rigid lockdowns appeared to keep a lid on infections, such as the blanket closure in Xi’an. By contrast, much of the world has learned to adapt to the virus and mitigate it with vaccination and other measures rather than shut down whole cities.
The omicron variant remains a threat to China’s 1.4 billion people— especially a fast-spreading subvariant, known as BA.2, which might be powering the latest outbreaks. China’s vaccines are somewhat less effective against omicron. Also, a recent surge in Hong Kong took a horrific toll among the elderly; only about 30 percent of those age 80 and older in Hong Kong were vaccinated with the primary series of shots. On the mainland, only half of Chinese aged 80 and older have the primary series, and only about 20 percent have the booster.
China’s leaders have seemed to realize lately that they need to be more flexible—that panic and uncertainty in the public can undermine pandemic control.
The lockdowns are certain to disrupt supply chains.
Will the virus be stopped by China’s harsh methods? Elsewhere, we’ve seen that such restrictions can work temporarily, but over the long run, the virus does not obey stop signs nor border controls. Zero covid may be reaching its limits.