U.S. birthrate increase ends trend

7-year decline ended by uptick in births after covid-19

The birthrate in the United States increased slightly last year, ending what had been a consistent decline since 2014, the federal government reported Tuesday.

There were 3,659,289 births in 2021, an increase of about 46,000, or 1%, from 2020, when there was a sharp drop, according to provisional data released by the National Vital Statistics System, part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

During the initial covid-19 lockdowns in the spring of 2020, there was a sharp decline in conceptions that led to births, according to Phillip Levine, an economist at Wellesley College who has studied recent fertility trends. But by the summer of 2020, conceptions were on the rise, as the unemployment rate dropped and government benefits reached families.

As the pandemic wore on, local infection rates did not seem to factor much into people’s decisions about childbearing.

“Our acceptance of the covid environment grew,” Levine said.

While the birthrate rose 2% for white and Hispanic women, it declined 2% to 3% for Black, Asian and Native American women.

The birthrate dropped to record lows for teenagers and declined 2% for women ages 20-24. Women in their 30s experienced the greatest uptick in fertility.

The CDC data shows that 10% of babies were born preterm in 2021, the highest rate since 2007. For the second year in a row, the cesarean delivery rate rose slightly, to 32%.

Experts debate why American women have had so few babies over the past 15 years. Social scientists say they are increasingly looking at another explanation for low fertility — an international shift in young women’s attitudes and goals.

A recent paper by Levine and colleagues did not find evidence to link state birthrates to child care costs, student debt or rental housing costs.

A lower birthrate raises questions about long-term national economic growth. There will be fewer working adults to finance programs like Social Security and Medicare.

“In a world in which you have to live with a lower fertility rate, you have to think about being more efficient in investments in the educational system and in infrastructure — things that will advance us as a society that don’t come from just more people,” Levine said.