Not 100% Trump’s party
Is it Donald Trump’s Republican Party? You can make the case it is, as partisan Democrats do, from the victories of various candidates endorsed by the former president in Republican primaries.
But it’s not an airtight case, and Trump’s batting average is inflated by the dozens of endorsements he has made of incumbents with no significant primary opposition.
Thus Trump endorsed Gov. Greg Abbott and many other easy winners in the Texas primary. But incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton, endorsed by Trump last July, was forced into a runoff by George P. Bush. Paxton leads in runoff polling, but one survey shows his margin narrowing.
In Ohio, Trump disappointed several proTrump Senate candidates when he endorsed “Hillbilly Elegy” author and onetime Trump skeptic J.D. Vance on April 15. Vance ended up winning the May 5 primary with 32 percent of the vote.
Was Trump’s nod pivotal? Vance jumped from 8-15 percent in previous polling to 23 percent in a Trafalgar poll conducted between April 13 and April
14, and had similar numbers in later polls. Primary polling is not an exact science, but the numbers support the conclusion that Trump jumped on the bandwagon of a candidate who had performed well in debates about as well as the conclusion that he swung thousands of voters in Vance’s direction.
Trump endorsements had mixed success in the May 10 primaries. In the Nebraska governor race, his candidate Charles Herbster lost to Jim Pillen, a state university regent endorsed by incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts. But Herbster’s personal problems may have been decisive. In the West Virginia race between two incumbent congressmen, Trump endorsee Alex Mooney won a solid victory in a district Trump carried 67 percent to 31 percent in 2020.
In North Carolina’s primary, Trump’s endorsement in June 2021 of Rep. Ted Budd may have been decisive not just in generating support but in winnowing the field.
Pennsylvania also voted last week, and, as I write, Trump-endorsed TV doctor Mehmet Oz leads former hedge funder David McCormick by just 2,672 votes out of 1.3 million cast.
If Oz’s lead holds up in the full tabulation and likely recount, Trump might claim credit. Certainly all three candidates (who, oddly in a state with a high percentage of residents born there, all made most of their careers elsewhere) strove to echo his stands on the issues.
Their perhaps opportunistic Trumpishness is in line with results of a recent New York Times focus group of Republican voters, moderated by Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. Eight out of 10 members raised their hands when asked if they’d support a candidate “who embraces Mr. Trump’s agenda.” But only 1 in 10 did so when asked about a candidate with “the same style and personality of Mr. Trump.”
Similarly, in the May 5-10 NBC News poll, only 34 percent of Republicans characterized themselves “more of a supporter of Donald Trump,” while 58 percent said they were “more of a supporter of the Republican Party.”
Earlier NBC polls showed more Republicans identifying with the party rather than the former president starting in April 2021, but the gap has risen from 6 percentage points then to 24 points now.
This is perhaps a natural development. A look back at the last three Republican presidential primaries shows a party moving toward populism on trade, immigration and entitlements, with the party’s constituency including more noncollege graduates and nonmetropolitan residents.
Back in 2008, little-known and lightly financed Mike Huckabee won 22 percent of the votes in contests until John McCain clinched the nomination on March 4. In 2012, the sweater vest-clad Rick Santorum won 28 percent of the votes until Mitt Romney clinched the nomination on April 3.
In 2016, Trump faced no single establishment candidate but a field full of rivals afraid to criticize him and bent on undercutting each other. In primaries and caucuses up through April 5, 2016, by which time Trump eliminated all but one opponent, he won 36 percent of the votes—a steady progression from Huckabee’s 22 percent and Santorum’s 28 percent. So did Trump create MAGA, or did MAGA create Trump?
My conclusion: It’s a Trumpish party, but not exactly Trump’s party. It’s also a party on the brink of a big midterm victory, judging from primary turnout so far. Trump will claim credit for the party’s victories, but Republicans may not renominate this former president in 2024, just as they declined to renominate Ulysses S. Grant in 1880 and Theodore Roosevelt in 1912.