Next stage of war nears
Israel, like any nation, has the right to self-defense. No country would endure the brutality of Oct. 7 and the continued brutality toward hostages without taking military action, especially when the attacking force vows to attack again and again. However, the willingness of the Israeli public, the Biden administration and the international community to support a brutal war with thousands of casualties (albeit ones caused by Hamas’ tactic of hiding among civilians) is not infinite. And now multiple strands seem to be pulling together to drag Israel to the next stage in Gaza.
The New York Times reported that “Israeli leaders are considering the next phase of the war in Gaza, the country’s defense minister said today amid mounting pressure from the United States to shift away from the high-intensity, large-scale warfare that Israeli forces have been waging for most of the last two months.”
Certainly the president and his emissaries have stepped up pressure to end mass bombing, exercise care in avoiding civilian deaths and make certain that the hostages’ torment is not forgotten. At a year-end news conference Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “It’s clear that the conflict will move and needs to move to a lower-intensity phase.” He added that “we expect to see and want to see a shift to more targeted operations with a smaller number of forces that’s really focused in on dealing with the leadership of Hamas, the tunnel network and a few other critical things.”
But U.S. pressure is not the only factor here. Independent of U.S. persuasion, Israel is completing its mission. “IDF Division 162 has finished completely dismantling Hamas’ three battalions of terror forces in the Jabalya area of northern Gaza, killing more than 1,000 of Hamas’ forces and arresting 500 terrorists,” the Jerusalem Post reported. The head of the Israel Defense Forces has begun to speak about moving to “Stage Three” (the end of main military options) in distinct areas with “different rates, with some areas starting to rebuild, while others remain in an extended, low-intensity conflict.” The destruction of Hamas’ infrastructure has likewise progressed. (“Some of this was illustrated by announcements Tuesday that the IDF destroyed 1,500 Hamas tunnel shafts while there were still huge numbers of tunnels to deal with.”)
In addition, the Israeli public is focused on the plight of the surviving hostages. Reports of horrendous treatment and sexual abuse, as well as a lack of visits from the International Red Cross, have rocked the country to a degree not necessarily appreciated outside Israel. Because Israel is a tiny country, the personal accounts of torment coming from neighbors, friends and colleagues profoundly affect the entire country. Israelis are rallying around hostage families, holding street protests and demanding that the government work more vigorously to bring the kidnapped Israelis home. Many Israelis think the government has given up on rescuing the hostages.
The pressure for another pause, at the very least, has intensified. Israeli President Isaac Herzog told foreign ambassadors that “Israel is ready for another humanitarian pause and additional humanitarian aid in order to enable the release of hostages. And the responsibility lies fully with [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar and the leadership of Hamas.” Intermittent reports suggest intensified talks among Israel, Qatar, Egypt and Hamas on some kind of hostage deal.
Israelis’ confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ability to run the war — already at a low ebb after the failure to stop the murder of 1,200 Israelis — was further shaken by the IDF’s accidental shooting of three hostages who were holding a white flag. Nothing better epitomizes the government’s perceived disregard for the hostages in search of a total victory over Hamas, which is hard to define. (When all Hamas fighters are killed? When its leadership is dislodged?) And the gap between the government and Israeli opinion widens by the day.
Another factor weighing against prolonged warfare is the Israeli protest movement that brought hundreds of thousands into the streets before Oct. 7 for more than 30 weeks to protest Netanyahu’s attack on the independent judiciary. That network has transformed into an all-purpose social service network and a political force beyond judicial reform.
As the government has proved unable to attend to the aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack within Israel (150,000 people displaced, huge medical needs, economic slowdown as more reservists have been called up), democracy groups have stood up to provide comfort and basic services to fellow Israelis.
But the pro-democracy movement has hardly neglected its goal of creating a more democratic, pluralistic society nor shied from the controversy over the war’s conduct. On the contrary, marchers’ ranks are filled with those demanding that the hostages be brought home. Haaretz reported that on Dec. 16, “Thousands of people demonstrated Saturday evening … demanding the hostages’ return, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum announcing that the families would remain at one of the entrances to the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv after the rally to demand a new hostage release proposal.”
Voices inside and outside Israel and progress on the ground are pushing the Netanyahu government in the same direction: Bring the war to an end, rescue the hostages, begin the rebuilding in Gaza. For the large majority of Israelis who no longer support Netanyahu, that will mean finding a new government. Only then can Israel wrestle with the hard questions concerning the fate of Gaza and the larger Palestinian conflict.