Totality economics
Solar eclipses are transformative events, turning midday into night for a few minutes. The economic transformation for cities and communities deep within the path of totality is also of the nightand-day variety.
At the top end, estimates have ranged to more than a million outof-state visitors arriving on Monday, spending as much as $100 million on lodging, dining, shopping and other eclipse-watching-related activities.
In actuality, it’s anyone’s guess what the final figures will be. Various states and cities fared differently in August 2017, when the last total solar eclipse crossed the U.S.
Hopkinsville, Ky., had branded itself as “Eclipseville” in preparation for that year’s event, and the town of 32,000 saw its population swell by five times when the day arrived. South Carolina was situated for prime eclipse viewing, and the state had an influx of 1.6 million people.
Researchers at GreatAmericanEclipse.com tracked actuals against its population travel model projections, and states like Wyoming and Nebraska far exceeded its predictions. Wyoming’s high-end projection had been 192,000 but the actual number of travelers was 261,000. Eclipse tourists in Nebraska totaled 708,000 against a pre-eclipse projection of 465,000.
The upper-end estimate for visitors to Arkansas is around 337,000.
Analysis of 2017 eclipse tourism seems to indicate that residents in and around more rural states are more likely to travel further than those in densely populated areas. On top of that, the 2024 eclipse is significantly different from the 2017 version.
For starters, the path of totality— where the best viewing is possible— is much wider this year because the moon is a little closer to Earth. The path in 2017 was only about 65 miles wide; on Monday the path over Arkansas will be around 120 miles wide.
This also results in longer totality times. Relatively few eclipse watchers in 2017 saw more than 2½ minutes of darkness. In the most central parts of the path in Arkansas, viewers on Monday will enjoy totality periods of over four minutes.
Finally, solar activity in the sun’s corona varies along magnetic field cycles lasting years. In 2017, the sun was at “solar minimum,” a diminished time for solar flares and coronal mass ejections in its outer atmosphere, called the corona.
This year, the sun will be near solar maximum, which increases the chances for a more visually stunning presentation during the eclipse: more streamers throughout the corona, and possibly “prominences,” which appear as curls or loops flaring off the sun’s outline. There might even be a chance, experts say, of witnessing a large eruption of solar material during Monday’s eclipse.
The lunar-solar alignment that will occur in the skies over the Natural State around 1:50 or so on Monday afternoon promises to be a spectacular sight. The question—and worry—is how many Arkansans might have their view blocked by clouds.
Mother Nature often has the final say in outdoor events, and the weather will likely be the biggest factor affecting the eclipse’s economic impact on Arkansas. In 2017, Nashville had clouds that closed up right at the moment the moon blocked the sun. That didn’t douse the Music City’s tourism boom, however, as local officials estimated nearly a million extra people in and around town.
But Nashville is always a hot tourist spot, and even though the eclipse was obscured during totality, the surreal darkness and the festive atmosphere celebrating the celestial phenomenon continued.
Day travelers, in particular, will be watching forecasts and adjusting their plans right up till the last few hours this year. Bad weather in Texas could push thousands into Arkansas if our skies are clearer. Visibility variations within Arkansas’ boundaries could alter in-state destinations for travelers as well, if it’s raining in Hot Springs but sunny in Pocahontas, for instance.
At the time of this writing, the Weather Channel forecast for much of Arkansas is warm, breezy and partly cloudy during the day, with only a slight chance of a rain shower. But everybody knows what they say about the weather in Arkansas (and many have choice words for it).
As amazing as an eclipse is to see, there are serious safety precautions to be strictly observed. Special solar-film protective glasses are available everywhere, and they’re a must. Regular sunglasses offer zero eclipse protection.
Ironically, it’s perfectly safe (and recommended) to take your glasses off and look directly at the eclipse during the brief moments of totality in order to best see the extraordinary spectacle.
But under no circumstances should you look at the partial eclipse before and after that period without wearing solar safety glasses. Doing so can cause immediate irreparable damage to your sight, including blindness.
As fate would have it, the conspiracy of the cosmos to deliver a total eclipse in the contemptible political climate of 2024 is somewhat amusing, given the mythology that once surrounded the astronomical anomaly.
Ancient cultures viewed eclipses as foreboding signs of impending disasters or catastrophes; the word itself comes from the Greek word for “abandonment,” as in the sun abandoning the Earth. Or reason abandoning politics.
Best wishes for a clear view on Monday. And thereafter.