Rain gauge
Unlike an eclipse, weather is hard to forecast. (Try predicting cloud cover in August 2044.) And while a forecast may not pan out as hoped, good ones are better than bad ones. With agribusiness, weather forecasts have a direct impact on economic forecasts.
Arkansas has been experiencing an El Niño since last year. Which gives us warmer weather with more rain.
“I guess that would be generally good news heading into the spring because it doesn’t look like it’s going to be overly dry,” National Weather Service at Little Rock senior forecaster John Lewis said. “As a matter of fact, precipitation may end up above average in spring. Overall, that’s decent. The only downside to that is if we get into some heavy rain events, maybe the rivers go higher than they should and we have a river flood problem, but right now we don’t have any of that.”
He did note that farmers near the Black, lower White and Cache rivers may not be as lucky.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects an 83 percent chance that El Nino will shift to La Nina. There’s a 62 percent chance it will happen this summer, and “the rain outlook for the fall might be a little drier than average,” though that remains to be seen.
The shipping challenge for agribusiness in Arkansas and other ag-heavy states comes from low water levels on the Mighty Muddy, which have persisted for the past couple of years.
The Mississippi River gauge at Memphis hit a record low of -10.82 feet in October 2022 and broke that record in October 2023, recording a level of -12.04 feet. Further, the snow melt, normally relied on to recharge the river, is lower than normal.
That’s not the only potential challenge. Far, far downstream, the Panama Canal has been problematic over the past couple of years.
The Canal’s lock operation relies on Gatun Lake, currently drier than it’s been in 73 years, according to the Panama Canal Authority. Last December, the water level in the canal reduced to 22 the number of vessels passing daily. That number rose to 27 in March—better, but still well below the 36 during normal operations.
Shippers have avoided the canal by taking alternative routes, increasing the amount of time and cost, which impacts commodity prices.
Why does the Panama Canal matter to Arkansas farmers? One of the leading producers of U.S. soybeans is Arkansas—and mainland China accounts for 62 percent of global soybean imports.
“Unfortunately, the current state of international shipping lanes is expected to persist throughout 2024,” the Farm Bureau’s AgInsider Report said.
As always, agriculture depends on Mother Nature. So far this year, we’ve seen tornadoes and golf ball-sized hail in Arkansas, earthquakes in New York, and landslides in other areas of the world. And millions of Americans saw a total solar eclipse on Monday.
Would it be too much to ask her to align the stars and provide the right amount of rain in the right places this year? A lot depends on it. Including Arkansas agriculture.