How is the state GOP blowing a chance at a Senate seat?
It’s hardly a secret that Donald Trump has overhauled the national Republican Party in his MAGA image. His daughter-in-law, Lara, even runs the main Republican office despite her lack of political experience.
But what about all those smaller Republican chapters at the statewide or countywide or even local levels? Their job is to elect Republicans to all manner of offices that don’t command the attention of the presidency, from state legislatures to Congress to county legislatures and even town council seats?
In these kinds of elections, you can find the grassroots of American politics. But in New Jersey, this is where you can find some of the most disturbing evidence of how badly the party of Lincoln, Rockefeller, Reagan and Bush has deteriorated.
The latest tale of Republican woe involves the current race for the U.S. Senate in New Jersey. It’s a tale centered in a landscape that is now dominated by Democrats. But it nevertheless offers plenty of lessons for the rest of America — even those parts dominated by Trump’s MAGA movement.
The story begins with an unexpected burst of hope for New Jersey Republicans — and massive fear among state Democrats. Last September, a federal grand jury charged New Jersey’s senior U.S. Senator, Bob Menendez, the veteran Democrat who began his political career on the streets of Union City in the 1970s, with orchestrating a sleazy bribery plot with his wife and three New Jersey businessmen.
If convicted, Menendez will face the possibility of spending years — if not the rest of his life — behind bars.
The federal charges seemed enough to seal Menendez’s political fate. His Senate career looked like it was finished.
To say that this indictment was salacious is an understatement. Federal prosecutors said Menendez and his wife, Nadine, exchanged favors for cash, gold bars, a Mercedes-Benz and other gifts. Months later, federal prosecutors expanded the basic bribery plot to include charges that Menendez compromised his powerful role as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to illegally act as an “agent” for Egypt and to illegally assist the government of Qatar.
In election year politics, this is what is known as a gift — for the other side. Menendez, who was expected to cruise to reelection to the Senate in November 2024, was suddenly viewed by his own party as damaged goods. New Jersey’s governor, Phil Murphy, called on Menendez to resign. So did most of the state Democratic establishment.
Menendez refused to step down. Indeed, he hinted he would run for reelection — and still may, as an independent. Polls indicate he has little chance of winning.
As if that news weren’t a big enough gift for Republicans, Democrats offered another token. None of New Jersey’s Democratic luminaries rushed to declare themselves as possible Senate candidates to replace Menendez.
Rep. Josh Gottheimer, the Wyckoff Democrat, and Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat from Montclair, ducked offers to run for Senate. Both hinted they might run for governor in 2025.
Murphy could have stepped forward. But he instead promoted his inexperienced wife, Tammy, a former Republican, as a candidate. She turned out to be a massive flop in early polling and withdrew.
Left standing was Rep. Andy Kim, the former foreign policy security official in the Bush and Obama presidential administrations and current three-term congressman from South Jersey. He’s definitely engaging, but hardly a household name.
Republicans had a golden opportunity to jump into the race — and perhaps snatch a reliably Democratic seat and tilt the Senate majority to Republicans. Think of how such a coup might affect federal abortion legislation or future U.S. Supreme Court vacancies. In short, the New Jersey race for the U.S. Senate suddenly had national implications.
Why didn’t Republicans pounce?
So what did the GOP do?
Well, pretty much nothing.
So far, the main Republican candidates for the Senate are: Curtis Bashaw, a Cape May-based real estate developer and former executive director of the Casino Reinvestment Development Authority; Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner; Justin Murphy, the former deputy mayor of Tabernacle, New Jersey, and a losing congressional candidate in 2008 and 2010; and Albert Harshaw, a businessman and U.S. Navy veteran.
Dear Reader: You’re forgiven if you’ve never heard of any of these candidates.
The message here from New Jersey Republicans is that they don’t plan to even try hard to win the U.S. Senate seat. Many cite a sad fact of election life: New Jersey Democrats now outnumber Republicans by 1 million registered voters.
The most notable Republican political figures are either sitting out the Senate race or aiming for another election.
Certainly that’s the case with Jack Ciattarelli, the former state assemblyman from Somerville.
Running for governor in 2021, Ciattarelli, despite not having much of a statewide profile, pounded incumbent Democratic progressive Phil Murphy as being out of touch with the meat-and-potatoes, kitchen table economic concerns of ordinary New Jersey residents.
Ciattarelli lost — but by just three percentage points.
This year, he had an open door to run a similar campaign to replace Menendez in the U.S. Senate. But Ciattarelli declined and announced this week that he is running for governor again in 2025.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also declined efforts to recruit him as a Senate candidate. Close friends say he just wasn’t interested in a Senate post, calling the Senate too boring and not a place to make waves in government.
Of course, Christie is not exactly busy now. And certainly, he hasn’t made news as a change agent.
Watching this throw-in-the-towel behavior by New Jersey’s once formidable Republican Party was odd. So I reached out to a wide selection of GOP operatives, ranging from veteran strategists and campaign managers to former candidates, as well as municipal party chairpersons and veteran advisers.
What is happening here? Why is New Jersey’s Republican Party suddenly so wimpy?
The answers were stunning.
The U.S. Senate “is not something that people want to put themselves out for,” one suggested.
Another said Republican leaders figured Tammy Murphy would easily glide into the Senate. So why even try to oppose her? And then came Kim— and Tammy Murphy’s withdrawal.
“I think we were caught off guard by the Andy Kim show,” this GOP strategist said.
Yet another Republican adviser compared his party’s moxie to that of “a baseball team that has lost for decades and decades.”
“It’s a defeatist attitude,” this adviser noted.
Still another Republican adviser suggested that “there is no state Republican Party to speak of, only outposts.” He added that he now feels Trump supporters dominate the party. His generation is viewed as too old and out of touch.
Another Republican strategist also pointed to Donald Trump as a factor. With Trump atop the ballot as the GOP presidential candidate, this strategist suggested, other Republicans would be at a disadvantage with New Jersey voters.
“If Donald Trump is our nominee, everybody is going to lose,” the strategist said of the overall Republican ticket.
This strategist was referring to so called “down ballot” races — for offices other than president. For many Garden State Republicans, the weakened party regularly offers up an uncertain salad of missed chances, personality conflicts, misguided planning and bad luck in elections.
An old car needing a tuneup
This wasn’t always the case.
Once upon a time, New Jersey was home a formidable Republican machine. Garden State Republicans had a distinctive pedigree. They were socially moderate but fiscally conservative.
Not too long ago, a typical New Jersey Republican might support abortion rights and gun control but also call for a tax cut. Certainly, that was the political playbook for two successful Republican governors, Tom Kean Sr. and Christie Whitman.
Sadly, though, New Jersey’s GOP now resembles a creaky jalopy in need of a tuneup.
Like most old cars, New Jersey’s Republicans can still look presentable sometimes as they cruise down an electoral highway. Ciattarelli’s narrow loss in the 2021 governor’s race is one example.
Some critics say Ciattarelli’s refusal to harshly criticize Trump and his MAGA voters may have cost him the election. Who knows? But this week, as Ciattarelli announced he is running again for governor, one of his chief Republican rivals, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, raised concerns (again) that Ciattarelli is not independent enough to steer wide of Trump’s MAGA movement.
Before Ciattarelli, Christie was a rising Republican star. Like his mentor, Kean Sr., Christie came off as holding moderate views on many social issues but promised to keep a close eye on Trenton’s piggy bank.
Christie’s problem was that he ended up embracing Trump — then disavowing him. Voters rightly wondered just who Christie really was as he ran again for president and found only tepid support from voters.
To some degree, Ciattarelli’s inability to shake free of Trump and Christie’s meandering path, from moderate to MAGA-Trump conservative and then back to Trump critic, offer a window into the state’s Republican problems.
Sadly, New Jersey’s Republicans are in search of their political soul. This may take years of wandering to figure out. And perhaps this journey — and dilemma — can be summed up in this sentiment by a GOP campaign manager and strategist.
Asked who might be a solid Senate candidate to run against Andy Kim, this Republican paused and then looked to Pennsylvania’s 2020 race for the U.S. Senate and the TV celebrity, Dr. Mehmet Oz, who lost as the Republican candidate. Besides claiming residency in Pennsylvania, Oz lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey — atop the Palisades cliffs in a home overlooking Manhattan.
“I wish that Dr. Oz had run in his home state,” this strategist suggested. “I think he would have had a real shot here.”
Welcome to New Jersey’s Republican Party.
Think of it as a work in progress.