Sluggish growth predicted in quarter

Spending

annual rate. The storm affected 24 states.

Consumers may also be scaling back on spending because they are worried about the “fiscal cliff.” That’s the name for automatic tax increases and spending cuts that will take effect in January if Congress and the Obama administration fail to strike a deal before then.

“The upshot is that although both incomes and spending will probably bounce back in November, the underlying trend is weak,” said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

The depressed spending figures suggest the economy will grow more slowly in the October-December quarter. Consumer spending drives nearly 70 percent of economic activity.

Dales predicts growth will tumble from the 2.7 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter to a weak 1 percent in the October-December period. That’s considered too low to lower the unemployment rate.

Even discounting the effects of Sandy, income growth would have risen a still-weak 0.1 percent. After-tax income adjusted for inflation fell 0.1 percent. And spending adjusted for inflation dropped 0.3 percent — the biggest decline in three years.

The saving rate edged up slightly to 3.4 percent of after-tax income in October, compared with 3.3 percent in September.

Many economists predict economic growth will rebound in the New Year when rebuilding begins in the Northeast.

And if President Barack Obama and Congress can reach a budget deal to avoid to fiscal cliff, some analysts and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke are predicting a good year for the economy.

Still, the storm’s impact has slowed sales in the nation’s most densely populated region ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season.

The International Council of Shopping Centers said 18 major retailers reported sales rose 1.7 percent in November compared to the same period a year ago. The group had been expecting sales growth between 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent.

The impact of the storm may be starting to fade. Retailers are reporting solid sales over the Thanksgiving weekend.

And applications for unemployment benefits have fallen from an 18month high in the first week of November. The surge was driven by applications in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.

Still, the increase in unemployment claims earlier this month will likely depress job growth for November. Many economists predict that net job growth for November will range between 25,000 and 75,000 — well below the 171,000 jobs added in October.